hankyoreh

dean of SNU Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology

By Choi Sung-jin, staff reporter

Before his election in 2007, Lee Myung-bak promised to satisfy voters’ dreams of becoming wealthy. He pledged to apply his years of business experience as a “CEO president” who would make South Korea the seventh largest economy in the world.

Five years later, economic and social justice are major concerns for South Korean voters. Some of those concerns are being rested in possible candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. But Ahn may be a false embodiment of these ideals in the same way that Lee was for wealth.

Both Lee and Ahn had successful careers in business, but their appeal to the public is different. Some people who have negative impressions of Ahn’s possible candidacy, claim that Ahn and Lee are both mirages- false embodiments of voters’ wishes.

There aren’t many people who openly say that Ahn is not fit to be president. But still, most progressives don‘t want to rule out the possibility of Ahn running for the country’s top office. Ahn could still run as a unified candidate in December’s election. In late June, the Hankyoreh interviewed prominent progressive Kim Jong-chul, vice-chairperson of the New Progressive Party (NPP), Kim Heon-tae, a polling expert, and Lee In-young, a lawmaker from the Democratic United Party (DUP). Lee has floated the possibility of the DUP candidate running in an opposition alliance with Ahn, but has pointed out Ahn’s many limitations.

Kim Heon-tae answered, “Well, Ahn can run for president, but people are worried that he might not be prepared.”

“The president should know how to distribute limited resources and mediate between interest groups. In order to do that, the person has to establish the exact value and contents ahead,” Kim Jong-chul pointed out. “But we still don’t know what he has.”

Kim added, “Ahn became popular after holding several public lectures for young people. He has emphasized making a fairer society, but has been too vague on how to accomplish that. He never suggested concrete solutions or mentioned structural problems. It seems that he’s not that passionate about changing the social framework.”

In fact, when we look back Ahn’s statements so far, he only has stressed values, not methods.

“‘Ahn Cheol-soo syndrome’ ultimately means the conflict between the old system and the future value. The parties, not reflecting the public opinion and the economy system, making a worse gap between the rich and the poor are all old-fashioned structures.” (Ahn Cheol-soo, in a March 27 lecture at Seoul National University)

“The election can change the number of jobs. It also affects the quality of life. The general election will be the significant inflection point, from the era of competition and conflict to the era of harmony and balance.” (Ahn, in a video, posted on April 9 to encourage voting)

“What can we do to make a better society where everyone is happy and has hope for the future? There can be some other things, but I think the following three key words are the most important, ‘welfare, justice, and peace’.” (Ahn, in a May 30 lecture at Busan National University)

Ahn’s statement can be simplified as meaning: discarding the old system, realization of economic justice, and rejection of conflict between political parties. He advocated these from an omniscient viewpoint. It is easy to discuss this on a grand theoretical level, but once detailed policies are made, enemies will appear and supporters will disappear.

“His abstract statements are not so different from President Lee Myung-bak’s radio speech,” Kim Jong-chul said. “Our party (NPP), at least, proposes some specific policies such as standardization of universities and free education to ease the gap in achievement created by private education,” Kim added.

It is also alleged that Ahn has never been in an intense battle such as a conflict between social classes, interest groups, or the strong and the weak.

“Personally, I feel uncomfortable with the word ‘laborer’. Of course, I value the historical and social significance of the word. But still, I feel the vertical differentiation between social classes in that word, ‘laborer’. I believe rich people contributed to the creation of this kind of stereotype.”

The quote above is from Ahn’s book, ‘CEO Dr. Ahn, The Spirit of Business’, published in 2001. This indicates that Ahn shares the traditional progressive camp’s values, but at the same time he is politically naive and inexperienced.

In fact, Ahn Cheol-soo syndrome is not new. The ‘syndrome’ refers to the enthusiastic popularity Ahn develops when he started making public appearances and considering entering politics. Chung Ju-yung and Park Chan-jong in 1992, Lee In-je in 1997, Chung Mong-joon in 2002, and Moon Kook-hyun in 2007 are all independent presidential candidates who drove the sensation to the presidential election.

The most recent candidate Moon Kook-hyun, former lawmaker and current president of New Paradigm Institute, was once supported by more than 10% of voters.

Moon was similar to Ahn in that he once served as a CEO, gained popularity based on a clean image. In 2007 presidential election, he recorded 4th support ratings of 5.8%, which was a strong result, considering he had no political experience.

Polling expert Kim Heon-tae, who participated in Moon’s camp in the 2007 presidential election, said, “Moon and Ahn are basically the same.”

“People from outside political circles don’t want to start a business that’s too risky. They regard the presidential election as a zero-sum game. It seems that they won’t even enter politics if they can’t become president,” said Kim. “Presidency is the ultimate project for them, so-called successful elites. It’s really interesting.”

Ahn, however, has a distinctive feature that preceding third candidates didn’t have. Only when considering the support rates, he is closest to being president-to-be.

“Now some voters are seeking an alternative, someone who comes from outside the political world,” lawmaker Lee In-young said. “Ahn’s supporters are liberal rather than conservative or reactionary,” he analyzed.

Kim Heon-tae accused the opposition DUP of contributing to the creation of the ‘Ahn Cheol-soo syndrome’. If the first generation of democratic government, represented as ‘Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun government’, did well, the public would have not sought a political hope from a non-political figure. Ahn’s value and supporters are closer to DUP than the New Frontier Party (NFP), considering his support of Seoul City Mayor Park Won-soon, and his three keywords ‘welfare, justice and peace’.

“The DUP and Ahn are like Siamese twins. The DUP’s dark side is Ahn,” Kim added. “Democratic and progressive parties failed to fix the problems in a growth-oriented economy, winner-take-all market and broken economic justice. Public wishes expressed as supporting of Ahn.”

Lee said, “If the DUP arranged the order after they won the Seoul referendum for school lunches, they could have come up with a proper candidate for Seoul City Mayor last year.”

“But they lacked the order, and the public thought the lawmakers were busy lining their own pockets. The situation naturally caused ‘Ahn Cheol-soo syndrome’,” Lee added.

In the opinion poll, Ahn is prior to any other candidates from DUP, in energizing the democratic-leaning supporters. There were a lot of non-responses when asked for whom to vote, Park Geun-hye, a ruling party presidential hopeful, versus Moon Jae-in or Sohn Hak-kyu, from DUP. But those non-responded voters chose Ahn, in the competition between Ahn and Park.

Kim Heon-tae argued that voters who agree with the DUP’s platform but want to change the government are likely to cast a vote to Ahn.

“They might be pure supporters of Ahn, or they don’t want to replace the government with current DUP,” said Kim. “Especially in Chungcheong province, the voters tend to support Park, but only against competitors other than Ahn. They certainly come back to support Ahn, when he is the option.”

It seems that Ahn’s decision to run or not is now close at hand. He has just finished teaching the spring semester at Seoul National University and now he has to decide whether to keep his teaching position or not. After the decision, his plan concerning the presidential election would be much clearer. If he keeps putting off the announcement, the public would think he’s also following the same path politicians always take.

“I’m not sure what people would think about his hesitancy,” Lee said. “Now is the time to establish the opposition candidates. He has to make it clear whether to participate in the opposition parties’ nomination or just go his own way.”

Lee Hae-chan, current president of DUP, said on June 25, “We will set up the DUP’s primary rules by July 25. Ahn should join the party by then.”

Some forecast that as soon as Ahn kicks into higher gear, his support ratings will drop. As a politician, he is no longer convincing only with the ideal and abstract discourse that he has claimed. Moreover, Ahn stands to lose some progressive support through his handling of issues, such as the South Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement and the Navy base in Gangjeong village, Jeju Island.

“Ahn became popular since he didn’t have detailed contents. That empty space was symbolized as ‘hopeful space’. As the space is filled up with specific plans, his popularity will begin to wane,” said Kim Heon-tae.

“In his public lecture, he could present his opinion vaguely, but that won’t work in the real political world. He has to state his opinion on a lot of pending issues so that voters can verify him as a politician,” said Kim Jong-chul.

Ahn’s journey to the presidency doesn‘t appear to be smooth sailing. Some experts criticized that it would be unfavorable for both Ahn and the opposition parties if Ahn approaches the election in a way of political technology, or keeps measuring the probability of victory.

Ahn will have more time to fill up his hollow space, if he starts living the political life as soon as possible.

“Please start planning for politics first, not for the presidential election,” Kim Heon-tae added.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]