hankyoreh

By Cho Hye-jeong, staff reporter

Park Geun-hye leads Ahn Cheol-soo in the latest polls for the December presidential election.

A Sept. 8 survey by the Hankyoreh and the Korea Society Opinion Institute had Park, the New Frontier Party presidential candidate, with a support rating of 51.3%, putting her ahead of the software mogul and AhnLab founder, who drew 44.8%.

Although the results were within the 3.7 percentage point margin of error, they showed a reversal of the results from July 27 and 28, where Park was trailing Ahn by a 44.9% to 48.9% margin. Park had been behind more or less continuously since two-way presidential race scenario polling began on October 29, briefly taking the lead on May 26-27 with a 53.5% before falling behind again in July.

The latest numbers showed Park making up ground in areas where she had previously shown weakness, earning support equal to or higher than Ahn in the greater Seoul area and among potential voters in their forties. In the city of Seoul, she opened up a nearly 10 percentage point lead, with 52.1% to Ahn’s 42.5%. She also squeaked ahead by 48.9% to 48.2% in Incheon and Gyeonggi province, which are both part of greater Seoul.

Park also had a 49.2% support rating among polling respondents in their forties, eclipsing Ahn’s 44.7% within the margin of error. The figures showed a clear generational divide in support, with respondents aged 20 to 39 preferring Ahn by a nearly two-to-one difference, and those over 50 preferring Park by the same ratio.

Analysts said the high numbers for Park, despite a recent uproar after a member of her camp, former press officer Jeong Jun-gil, allegedly pressured Ahn to stay out of the race, were due to a rallying of her support base.

“There seems to have been a kind of reaction to the first signs of Ahn pushing back against Park as a leading contender,” said KSOI chief analyst Yoon Hee-woong.

Yoon said the segments rallying behind Park included those who had previously been favorably disposed toward her but withheld their support, conservatives who had supported Ahn, and conservative-leaning moderates.

The flap with Jeong does not appear to have had much of an effect on Park’s loyal following, with much focus given to the fact that the candidate herself was not directly involved.

The controversy also seems to have dented Ahn’s image as a “fresh face.”

“What voters want from Ahn is new values and a style of new politics,” Yoon said. “This latest episode gave the impression that Ahn is no different from the rest of the political establishment.”

Another possible factor behind Ahn’s dip is the fact that he has no pledge or issues he is standing behind, leading voters to focus on the negatives. As of now, he has yet to officially declare his candidacy.

The latest poll had 45.5% of respondents predicting a run from Ahn, versus 39.3% who predicted he would not. Part of this may well be due to his political presence in recent months, releasing a new book (“Ahn Cheol-soo’s Thoughts”), touring the country to hear from the public, and making a prominent issue of Jeong’s alleged intimidation tactics - all of which could have been taken by many as a strategy geared to a future declaration of candidacy.

Predictions of a run by Ahn were higher among respondents who identified with the Democratic United Party (56.9%) and Unified Progressive Party (55.2%) than among those who support the NFP (35.1%). Over two-thirds (67.5%) of those who voted for Ahn in a three-way race expected him to ultimately throw his hat in, compared to 40.5% of those who voted for DUP candidate Moon Jae-in, and just 35.6% of those who voted for Park.

But more respondents than not expressed the view that Ahn shouldn’t run, by a 49.0% to 39.6% margin. When asked whether they felt Ahn should run, particularly high percentages of Daegu/North Gyeongsang voters (70.2%), voter sin their fifties (63.7%), NFP supporters (65.5%), and Park supporters (69.3% in a two-way race scenario with Ahn) replied negatively.

Analysts said this showed concerns among conservatives that a run by Ahn could pose the biggest obstacle to Park’s presidential victory chances.

In contrast, support for Ahn’s run was highest among Honam voters (50.5%), respondents in their thirties (54.9%), white-collar workers (51.8%), and progressives (54.6%). When NFP supporters were left out of calculations, respondents favored an Ahn candidacy by 53.1% to 36.4%.

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