Park Geun-hye’s support shown waning in latest polls

Posted on : 2012-09-24 15:21 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Only 35.3% of polled voters say they want the ruling party reelected in December

By Ahn Chang-hyun, staff reporter

Survey results are casting doubts on Park Geun-hye’s once seemingly insurmountable lead in the presidential race, with more than half of respondents saying they hope to see a different party take in December.

Not only did the New Frontier Party candidate drop behind software mogul Ahn Cheol-soo in a two-way race scenario, but her lead over Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae-in nearly vanished.

The Hankyoreh asked the Korea Society Opinion Institute to carry out the survey of 1,500 adults nationwide on Sept. 21 and 22. The results showed Park trailing Ahn in a two-way race by 44.6% to 49.7%. This difference of 5.1 percentage points was outside the 2.5 percentage point margin of error.

Park’s lead over Moon in a two-way race also narrowed to within the margin of error, with her 48.9% putting her 4.3 percentage points ahead of his 44.6%.

Just two weeks before, a Sept. 8 survey had Park leading Ahn and Moon by 6.5 and 11.3 percentage points, respectively, in two-way race scenarios.

Her lead also slipped to 39% in a three-way race situation, down 6.1 percentage points form the 45.7% recorded on Sept. 8.

Park’s tumble appears linked to controversy over her remarks on historical ㅑisues, as well as revelations about improprieties by associates, including former NFP lawmakers Hong Sa-duk and Song Young-sun.

In one particularly noteworthy finding, 56.7% of respondents said they would prefer a party other than the NFP in power when asked whether they wanted it reelected or replaced in December. Only 35.3% said they hoped to see the party reelected.

Meanwhile, Ahn has been riding a wave of support since officially declaring his candidacy on Sept. 19. In addition to beating Park in a two-way race, he also opened up a 29.0% to 20.1% lead over Moon in a three-way race. As of Sept. 8, his lead in this scenario was just 4.4 percentage points.

He also trailed Ahn by 6.6 percentage points on a question asking which opposition candidate would be the best competition for Park. Moon drew 41.0% of votes, while the software mogul drew 47.6%.

At the same time, the numbers showed Moon making up ground fast, picking up 35.3% of party support as opposed to the 28.4% he received in the Sept. 8 survey. This suggests the DUP support base has been rallied somewhat by his recent selection as the presidential nominee, Ahn’s declaration of candidacy, and the beginning of discussions toward a single opposition candidate.

Ahn was ahead of Moon in ratings of both suitability as an opposition candidate and potential to compete with Park. Much of this had to do with his popularity among voters in their forties and under, as well as those who have yet to make a decision about who to pull the lever for in December.

The survey also looked at changes in support depending on whether the single opposition candidate was Moon or Ahn. A scenario with Ahn as the single opposition candidate saw him picking up 87.1% of Moon’s support base and 16.5% of Park Geun-hye’s. In contrast, Moon was seen drawing 78.3% of Ahn’s supporters and 8.5% of Park’s as a lone candidate.

The percentages give some indication of the “reach” of each candidate, which is likely to be hotly debated as the race goes on.

“You can really see Ahn’s reach with moderates and independents when you compare Park Geun-hye’s results against him and against Moon Jae-in,” said KSOI chief analyst Yoon Hee-woong.

Yoon explained that Ahn received overwhelming support from moderates and independents as a single candidate, but that a lot of the moderates went over to Park’s side when Moon was the candidate.

These results tie in with analyses holding that Ahn was targeting moderates and independents with his sweeping criticisms of both ruling and opposition party politicians in his Sept. 19 declaration speech

The survey involved random digit dialing of equal parts home and mobile telephones. It had a 2.5 percentage point margin of error with a 95% confidence level.

 

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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