hankyoreh

left

By Seong Han-yong, political correspondent

As Democratic United Party presidential candidate Moon Jae-in and independent Ahn Cheol-soo have pledged to meet on Nov. 6 for discussions on selecting a single opposition candidate, it seems that at last the 18th presidential election may be becoming a two candidate race. It would be hasty, however, to expect this evening’s meeting to lead to a smooth selection of a single opposition candidate.

They have just agreed to meet privately at the Kim Koo Museum and Library in Seoul. No schedule has been set and the method for selecting a single candidate is not yet known. There has not yet been any exchange of opinions or dialogue between the working-level staff of the two camps. There is apparently a long way to go before an agreement is reached and a single candidate is set forth before the candidate registration deadline on Nov. 25.

Throughout the upcoming negotiations, the two candidates and their representatives will likely have fierce debates and need to make compromises on an array of issues.

First on the docket is the method for selecting a single candidate. Both of the candidates need to find a proper cause to gain the approval of supporters. At the same time, they will carefully weigh the methods to ensure that the method assures their guy wins the candidacy. This is an issue that brings together the justifications and vested interests of the candidates in a complex way.

Candidate Moon prefers an indirect primary by an ad hoc electoral college. He sets forth the grounds that public opinion surveys leave doubt in terms of scientific accuracy and may be rejected by supporters if the results are within the margin of error. Inwardly, it is because he believes in the organizational power of his party.

Ahn’s camp prefers the public opinion survey method. His reasoning is that there is insufficient time before the candidate registration, and election by the electoral college is unfair. Inwardly, he believes in the results of recent opinion polls that showed he has a lead over Park Geun-hye in a possible two-way race.

It is theoretically possible that the two will carry out direct negotiations to choose one candidate, but they would be hard-pressed to make that a reality due to the difficulties the selected candidate would face in winning over the supporters of the candidate who yielded. Moon was selected as his party’s presidential candidate while Ahn’s supporters want Ahn to be the next president. If the two candidates compromise, there is a danger that some supporters will leave the opposition ticket entirely.

The second issue is about the content and formality of a joint government. To align behind a single candidate means the unification of two political forces, in addition to simply narrowing the field to a single candidate. Sharing values and policies is important, but in reality, agreement is necessary on content of and form for the division of power, including how the two camps would come together to run a government.

They have to split all possible powers, including posts such as prime minister, cabinet members or party leadership. In the two precedents for unification between Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-pil in the 1997 presidential election and the single candidacy deal reached between Roh Moo-hyun and Chung Mong-joon in the 2002 election, the camps agreed to split the rights to recommend cabinet members.

Moon vowed on Oct. 22, “If I become president, I’ll enhance the role of prime minister to even out executive authority according to the constitution.” Ahn has examined the plan for authority division, in which the president is in charge of the nation’s vision for the future (the Ministry of Planning), unification, foreign affairs, and national defense while the prime minister is responsible for the remaining national affairs. The two candidates have to negotiate and clarify such ideas.

Meanwhile, things may turn out very differently from 2002 in that the two candidates have decided to jump into a meeting without prior working-level conversations. In 2002, after Roh revealed his intentions to accept single candidacy on Oct. 3, working-level staff from the Roh and Chung camps were just barely able to continue their negotiations from Nov. 9. The results of opinion polls were only revealed in the early morning of Nov. 25, just two days prior to candidate registration.

If Moon and Ahn outline the method of singularization and plans to establish a joint government at the Nov. 6 meeting, future negotiations may just proceed smoothly. How things turn out is all up to them.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]