Moon Jae-in enjoys a boost in his poll ratings

Posted on : 2012-11-14 15:24 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Both Moon and Ahn lead Park in two-way races, though Park still leads three-way race

By Ahn Chang-hyun, staff reporter

According to a Nov. 11-12 survey conducted by Research Plus after being commissioned by the Hankyoreh, the Democratic United Party candidate moved ahead of independent Ahn Cheol-soo for the first time this election season in a three-candidate contest. Moon finished with 26.3% of votes to Ahn’s 22.9%, putting him ahead within the margin of error. Park Geun-hye, the Saenuri Party candidate, remained in first with 39.3%.

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In head-to-head races, Moon and Ahn both edged out Park, also within the margin of error. Moon led by 50.4% to 45.3%, Ahn by 49.6% to 45.0%.

Moon earned 48.1% of votes among respondents asked who they would support as a final opposition candidate against Park, putting him 11 percentage points ahead of Ahn’s 37.1%. Moon also led Ahn by 49.1% to 42.0% when Park supporters were excluded from the analysis, as was previously done with a 2002 poll on a final candidacy deal between Chung Mong-joon and eventual president Roh Moo-hyun. A Nov. 2 and 3 survey using the same methodology put Ahn ahead by a 53.2% to 39.8% margin.

A total of 59.2% of respondents said they would prefer a winner outside the Saenuri Party (NFP), substantially more than the 35.5% who said they hoped the party would remain in power. Also, 64.2% said they agreed with Moon and Ahn’s plan to select a single opposition candidate, compared to 28.9% who opposed it. The DUP enjoyed a party support rate of 39.4%, putting it roughly even with the Saenuri Party, which had 38.4%.

Moon’s boost was the standout finding of the survey. Some observers went so far as to call it a trend, noting similar findings in other polls as well. In particular, the gap between Moon and Ahn narrowed to 49.1% to 42.0% in a three-candidate race when Park supporters were not included, although the difference fell outside the margin of error. In the Nov. 2 and 3 survey, Moon trailed Ahn by 3.2 percentage points on the same question, putting him within the margin of error.

With respondents who were not Park supporters, Moon led Ahn in every age group except voters in their twenties. He also enjoyed a 53.2% to 33.0% lead in Gwangju and South Jeolla province, and a 55.1% to 34.1% lead in Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang province.

In contrast, Ahn enjoyed a lead of 52.7% to 41.1% in Seoul. Moon enjoyed an overall advantage among all groups but students, where Ahn led by about 20 percentage points.

The survey marked the first time Moon finished second since the Hankyoreh and Research Plus began polling in October. In a head-to-head contest, he led Park by 5.1 percentage points, which fell within the margin of error.

Most experts said Moon’s upswing was the product of his beginning talks with Ahn to choose a final opposition candidate. On Nov. 6, Moon and Ahn held a surprise meeting at the Kim Koo Museum and Library in Seoul, where they agreed to make a final decision before the Nov. 25 candidate registration date.

“Because Moon Jae-in proposed the finalization talks and Ahn accepted his overtures, people have come to associate a potential candidacy deal with Moon,” said Research Plus director Im Sang-ryeol.

“It also looks like Moon succeeded in giving a sense of stability by acting like a kind of ‘big brother,’” Im added.

 

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