hankyoreh

Nov. 23. (News 1)

By Lee Tae-hee, Son Won-je, Shin Seung-keun, staff reporters

Just as in the 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election, Ahn Cheol-soo made a graceful exit from the 2012 presidential race.


Speaking at a press conference Friday to announce his decision, Ahn, who was running as an independent, bowed out for the victory of the opposition. He said, "I once told you I would put everything on the line to produce one final opposition candidate. Becoming president and ushering in a new politics is important to me, but I feel that the most valuable thing of all is for politicians to keep a promise once they have made one to the people."


His message was that he was bowing out because keeping his promise as a politician was more important than being president. Indeed, he gave keeping promises as a paramount priority in his choice to proceed as a politician.


With his decision, the Democratic United Party's Moon Jae-in is now the sole major opposition candidate to the Saenuri Party's Park Geun-hye.


The proximate cause for his decision was the negotiations with Moon, which were beginning to spiral into an all-out clash. Ahn first mentioned the possibility of conceding or withdrawing as a candidate after a televised debate on Nov. 21. 
Observers said he appeared to have reached the conclusion that either he or Moon had to exit after things escalated the following night to full-scale confrontation between the two sides.


During a meeting with Moon on the morning of Nov. 22, Ahn called on Moon to bow out because Ahn was leading in a hypothetical head-to-head race against Park. After Moon adamantly refused, Ahn appears to have decided that his only course of action was to give up his own ambitions to run for president.


In his Nov. 23 statement, Ahn said he intended to continue working as a politician, 
"I truly do long for a new era and a new politics," he said. "I will never forget the historical mission given to me. No matter how rough the road ahead may be, I will put my all into traveling forward on it."


Observers said Ahn is likely to be an active participant in Moon's campaign, but the chances of him actually joining the DUP appear slim. Alternate courses for his political career include running his foundation and organizing a political campaign and research institute for political reforms.


Moon expressed gratitude and sadness at Ahn's decision, and resolved to continue uninterrupted with carrying out the terms of the Joint Declaration on a New Politics and national policies agreed upon with Ahn.


"I will show particular respect and courtesy to Ahn Cheol-soo," he continued. "My deepest thanks go to the entire South Korean public for supporting and worrying for both of us candidates in our final decision on who would run."


Observers said Moon's remarks appeared aimed at soothing Ahn's support base in their disappointment and frustration over their candidate's sudden decision, and minimizing the possibility of them breaking off politically.


The Saenuri Party (NFP) worried about the effects of the decision, even as they derided Ahn's candidacy as a failed political experiment thwarted by the old-school politics of the DUP.


During a briefing at NFP headquarters in Seoul's Yeouido neighborhood, spokesman Ahn Hyung-hwan said, "For all the long and tiring discussions, Ahn Cheol-soo never cleared the wall of the Democratic United Party. His brand of new politics was finally thwarted by the crafty maneuvering of the sly, old politicians in the DUP."


With Ahn's sudden announcement, politicians' eyes are now turning to what his supporters do next. Polling experts said roughly half are likely to migrate over to Moon. In various multi-candidate polls, Ahn had a consistent support base of around 25% of voters.


Research Plus director Im Sang-ryeol said half of his supporters should be viewed as traditional opposition supporters who will back Moon.


The question now is where the others will go. Ahn's wave of support came from drawing in a non-partisan segment frustrated with both the ruling party and opposition, rallying them under the banner of "political reforms." 
Now these non-partisans face three possible routes. While they could choose to back Ahn, they may also vote for Park or not vote at all.


In a Nov. 11 and 12 poll by the Hankyoreh, 14.3% of respondents who saw Ahn as the most suitable opposition candidate chose Park over Moon in a head-to-head race. 76.9% chose Moon, while 8.8% gave no answer.


A polling expert said Moon was likely to face trouble drawing in supporters of Ahn and those interested in politics. 
"The Democratic United Party is not showing them anything different from its old ways," the expert said.


This means the possibility that Ahn's die-hard supporters in their twenties and thirties, as well as moderate and conservative-leaning supporters in their forties and sixties, are very likely to turn their backs on the DUP.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]