hankyoreh

Dec. 19. Park came to the square in central Seoul to accept her victory. (Kim Kyung-ho

By Kim Oi-hyun, staff reporter

This year’s presidential election disproved the “law” that higher voter turnout always works in favor of the liberal party. The major cause of this change appears to be Korea’s aging society and the increasingly large elderly population.

In any country, voting turnout tends to be lower among younger people and higher among those middle-aged and older. Because of this, an increase in the overall turnout is often an indication of more young voters turning up at the polls. Since those who are middle-aged and older tend to be more conservative, and those who are younger tend to be more liberal, it can be inferred that liberals gain the advantage when more people vote.

Voter turnout this year was reported to be 75.8%, which is considerably higher than in the previous two elections (70.8% in 2002 and 63% in 2007). According to conventional wisdom, this situation should have given the liberal candidate a strong advantage.

However, there has also been a significant restructuring of the Korean population over the same time period. The number of eligible voters in their 20s and 30s (including 19 year olds) dropped by 10 points from 48.3% during the 2002 election to 38.3% this year. At the same time, the number of voters aged in their 50s and older jumped the same 10 points from 29.3% to 40%.

As 10% of the voting base shifted to the middle-aged and older category, the number of voters in their 50s and above surpassed the number in their 20s and 30s for the first time in history. In short, a higher turnout at the polls didn’t necessarily imply that more young people voted.

While the population composition may have changed, the age-based party alignment has not. Based on the exit polls conducted by the three major broadcasters, Park had low support among people in their 20s (33.7%) and 30s (33.1%). However, she was strongly favored by voters in their 50s (62.5%) and 60s and above (72.3%). It was just the opposite with Moon Jae-in, candidate for the Democratic United Party (DUP), who was supported by younger voters.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]