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Mar. 6. (Yonhap News)

By Kim Kyu-won, staff reporter

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) opened up something of a can of worms on Mar. 6 by stating it would “retaliate against the commanding forces” in response to a statement by the (North) Korean People’s Army (KPA) Supreme Command that pledged to nullify the 1953 armistice agreement that halted the Korean War.

With its statement, it raised the possibility of a limited military clash between North and South Korea escalating into all-out war. A problem is, the JSC did not clearly define what “commanding forces” would entail.

Also unusual is the fact that the vow to retaliate to any provocations came with President Park Geun-hye’s stamp of approval.

The person making the statements about “the point of origin,” “supporting forces,” and “commanding forces” was army major general Kim Yong-hyun, Operational Director for the JCS. It is unusual in itself for someone of his position to appear at a press conference, a move that observers read as a response to a strongly worded Supreme Command statement the day before by North Korean reconnaissance general bureau chief Kim Yong-chol.

The term “point of origin” was used to describe personnel and equipment used to attack South Korea, while “supporting forces” referred to backup units providing ammunition, fuel, and the like, a Joint Chiefs of Staff source said. Mention of strikes against the “point of origin” and “supporting forces” has been made by the military in the past.

But the use of the term “retaliation against the commanding forces” has more troubling ramifications.

“The military provocations that occur can take many forms, so we can’t specify who the commanding forces are,” said a JCS source. “We respond according to the circumstances.”

The explanation suggests that the armed forces want to amplify the threat against North Korea by leaving the scope of “commanding forces” unclear. But a source with the Ministry of National Defense said, “It means that in the event of something like the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island [in November 2010], they would be able to attack the NK KPA Fourth Corps command, which was responsible for that area.” This would suggest that the definition of commanding forces would be limited to those in charge of direct military operations. By this account, retaliation to a North Korean provocation would be limited in scope and not directed at the Supreme Command in Pyongyang.

The Ministry of National Defense previously ignited a controversy last April, just after North Korea’s long-range rocket launch, when it announced that its newly unveiled cruise and ballistic missiles were “capable of a precision strike on the window of Kim Jong-un’s office in Pyongyang.” After last months’ nuclear test, it showed off its most recent ship-to-surface and submarine-to-surface missiles and said they could “pick any window in the North Korean command to take out.”

Even if retaliation is not aimed at Pyongyang, the controversy remains. If South Korea responds to a military attack by going after command headquarters, rather than just the attacking supporting units, the result could be escalation to all out war. This was the threat that ultimately dissuaded former President Lee Myung-bak and the military command from using fighter planes in the wake of the Yeonpyeong attack.

“We need to look at the actual situation to see if retaliating against the commanding forces would mean escalation or not,” said a Joint Chiefs of Staff source. “It depends on what kind of attack there is from North Korea.”

Kim Jong-dae, Chief Editor of the journal Defense 21+, explained that retaliation against the commanding forces would entail fighter plane and destroyer attacks.

“This would be escalation, and there is a risk of things flaring up into all-out war,” Kim said. “It’s also in violation of the rules of engagement set by the UN Command in the armistice.”

Kim advocated a more comprehensive solution than military retaliation, one that included “ideas for non-military solutions.”

Meanwhile, the JCS announced that they had upgraded their alert level at noon on Mar. 6, but were still at Level 3 on Watchcon, their North Korea surveillance system.

A JCS source reported that South Korean and US surveillance assets had been beefed up, along with the weapons system standby levels for the army, navy, and air force.

“The commanders are on standby to be able to return to the unit within one hour,” the source said.

Regarding North Korean troop movements, the source said they were engaged in “intensive winter exercises,” adding that they appeared to be preparing for large-scale combined exercises.

“Because this is the time of year when the sea thaws, we’re watching closely for submarine and submersible vehicle movements,” the source said.

With South Korea and the US planning to continue their joint Key Resolve-Foal Eagle exercises, North Korea’s plans would have large-scale military exercises going on all over the Korean Peninsula next week.

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