US scholar: N. Korean can produce nukes without imports

Posted on : 2013-09-25 15:29 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Joshua Pollack argues that without need for imports, sanctions won’t be able to stop N. Korea’s nuclear program
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By Park Byong-su, staff reporter

North Korea possesses the capability to produce the key parts for uranium enrichment facilities on its own, an American expert on arms control has claimed. Such facilities are essential for making nuclear weapons.

Joshua Pollack, who works for Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), made the argument in a paper submitted to an international academic conference that was made public on Sep. 24. Pollack said he found evidence in North Korean media reports and unclassified documents suggesting that North Korean scientists have the technology to produce centrifuges by themselves without help from the outside world

A centrifuge is an apparatus that enriches uranium to a level of 90% or more, turning it into the raw material for nuclear weapons. The concentration of uranium in naturally occurring ore is only 0.7%.

Pollack co-authored the paper with Dr. Scott Kemp, a scientist at M.I.T. He argues that sanctions and other economic measures won’t be sufficient to stop North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons. “Export controls, sanctions, and interdiction will not be able to stop North Korea’s enrichment of uranium for nuclear weapons. If they are making the most important parts for their nuclear program at home, these policy tools can’t stop them,” Pollack wrote in his paper.

Pollack also mentioned the difficulty in monitoring North Korea’s nuclear development. “It will be hard to know where exactly enrichment activity is taking place. Gas centrifuges can be installed almost anywhere. They use little electricity and generate little heat, so their presence is very hard to detect,” Pollack wrote.

If that is the case, Pollack concludes, “We may be forced to live with a nuclear North Korea for a long time.”

Pollack writes, “According to news media reports and unclassified government documents, North Korea was detected importing large amounts of centrifuge-­related parts and materials for about four years, from 1999 through 2003. These imports included some crucial goods, those that are relatively scarce and hard to make. But after 2003, these crucial imports do not seem to have been observed.

He continued, "So how can North Korea build or expand a centrifuge plant without importing sensitive technologies from more advanced countries? The most likely answer is, by producing the necessary components and materials at home."

Pollack identified six key centrifuge parts that he believes North Korea is able to manufacture by itself: uranium hexafluoride, vacuum pumps, ring magnets, frequency inverters, maraging steel, and CNC flow-forming machines.

He said that the manufacturing process for the steel alloy known as maraging steel, which is an ingredient in rapidly spinning rotors, is very similar to North Korea’s "Juche steel" process.

The CNC lathes, which are critical for making rotors with maraging steel, are similar to the special lathes that appeared in factory photos published by North Korean media, Pollack said. He also argued that the work processes for uranium hexafluoride, vacuum pumps, cylindrical magnets, and frequency conversion are described in North Korean scientific writing.

Pollack wrote, "looking across all six areas, domestic production appears to have been in place no later than 2009."

Pollack will be presenting his research findings at the Asan North Korea Conference 2013, sponsored by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. The conference will be held in Seoul on Sep. 25.

Responding to Pollack’s claims, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs official admitted on condition of anonymity to hearing academic arguments that North Korea has developed centrifuges on its own.

"Nonetheless," the official said, "most people believe that these arguments are based on as yet unverified assumptions."

 

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