hankyoreh

Gyeonggi Province

By Kim Nam-il, staff reporter

A Gallup Korea poll found a 56% approval rating for Park Geun-hye’s performance as President as she marks her first year in office on Feb. 25. In another survey by the Hankook Ilbo newspaper, the rating was five percentage points higher at 61.6%. As she continues to enjoy approval ratings some five to ten percentage points higher than the 51.6% of votes she won in the 2012 presidential election, her brief drop below 50% could be interpreted as a one-off exception to an ongoing positive trend.

■ Die-hard fans on the level of the ‘Three Kims’ 　

“President Park has a base of the kind of die-hard fans that the ‘Three Kims’ used to have,” said Media Research vice president Kim Ji-yeon, referring to the trio of Kim Dae-jung, Kim Young-sam, and Kim Jong-pil that once dominated South Korean politics.

“It’s a political strength that really sets her apart from the rest,” Kim added.

According to Kim, this base is serving to shore up Park’s approval ratings. Real Meter director Lee Taek-soo estimated the size of this core bloc at around 20% of the public.

“If you look at the 56% approval rating, there‘s about 15% to 20% who are just hoping the President does a good job, 20% of it is the legacy of her parents [former President Park Chung-hee and First Lady Yuk Young-soo], and the other 20% is what Park built for herself as a politician,” Lee said. “There doesn’t seem to be much chance of her support ever dropping below 40%.”

Yoon Hee-woong, head of the opinion analysis center at the political consultancy Min, said another thing contributing to Park’s solid approval ratings is her own support base, one not formed through coalitions with leading figures in other parties - as in the case of former President Roh Moo-hyun and Chung Mong-joon - or a “half-and-half” party alliance like Park once had with her predecessor as President, Lee Myung-bak.

“President Park solidified her own base as the conservatives’ single presidential contender during the five years of the Lee administration [from 2008 to 2013],” Yoon said.

Strongly boosting her ratings is the unwavering support Park enjoys from voters over 60 in the Yeongnam and Chungcheong regions. Weekly Gallup Korea approval rating figures put support for Park among the over-60 segment at 84% as of Feb. 21. Even last December, when Park‘s overall approval rating dipped to 48% amid a controversy over public enterprise privatization and the “How are you nowadays?” poster campaign, she was still supported by 79% of seniors. Her approval with this group remained at 82% even amid charges of backtracking on her pledge for a basic pension - a particularly sensitive issue among older voters.

“People in their fifties, sixties, and over are a powerful support base for her,” said Jang Deok-hyun, a department chief at Gallup Korea.

Dec. 17

Many issues over the last year have worked in Park’s favor. In particular, she has benefited from foreign policy issues that tend to draw widespread support, including her overseas trips and relations with Pyongyang and Tokyo.

“Her consistent response to the crisis in relations with North Korea and Japan has really helped her,” said Lee Taek-soo.

Also working for her in a generally conservative social climate. Yoon Hee-woong observed that instability in North Korea and the NIS’s recent high-profile prosecution of an insurrection plot involving Unified Progressive Party lawmaker Lee Seok-ki “have really fed into the high approval ratings.”

Some analysts suggested Park’s skilled handling of situations in line with public opinion has helped her. “There hasn’t been any prolonged slide in support,” said Jang Deok-hyun. “Whenever [her ratings] start to drop, she has turned the tide by changing her position and explaining her stance to the public.”

Another “political base” of sorts that has helped Park to sustain high approval ratings is the absence of a widely trusted opposition capable of getting to public to “re-evaluate” her performance.

“There ought to be an opposition asking the right questions, but the opposition right now isn’t capable of getting that kind of response,” said Yoon.

Meanwhile, coverage by conservative cable TV networks has also been identified as a source of support. “One variable that past administrations didn’t have is the presence of general networks that are playing the role of a kind of ‘publicity office,’ providing an ongoing, very positive assessment of the President,” said Lee.

■ Political and economic variables for year two　

Many analysts said Park can expect a slow dip in approval in her second year in office - as opposed to an abrupt “L-shaped curve” crash.

“Even though the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations got some political gains, their ten years in office [from 1998 to 2008] was too short a period for them to win support,” said Research Plus director Im Sang-ryeol. “So they weren’t perceived by the public as offering stability. With the Park administration, there’s a kind of ‘dual psychology,’ where even though there’s a sense of instability, people can’t just pull their support, because there’s no alternative.”

According to this analysis, Park can expect to maintain her current approval ratings for some time, with only slight dips and rises.

One underlying assumption in these predictions that Park’s support levels will be difficult to sustain if she doesn’t produce results at home as well as abroad.

“A drop in support is something that every South Korean President faces,” said Yoon Hee-woong. “People are pretty friendly during your first year in office, but by year two they’re going to start demanding real results in domestic politics and the economy, and making some more objective decisions.”

Kim Ji-yeon said some adjustments to the high support levels would be “a natural occurrence.”

“She would be quite a President if she kept up these kinds of approval ratings in her second year in office,” Kim said, adding, “Once a President is affected by domestic politics in specific ways, she’s going to get some negative ratings.”

The top political issue for year two is likely to be the municipal elections on June 4.

“If those elections end in an unexpected defeat for the ruling party, she could face a lame duck situation very quickly,” said Lee Taek-soo.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]