hankyoreh

By Kim Nam-il, staff reporter

Public opinion data show the ruling Saenuri Party in the lead to win nine of 17 local government head seats in the upcoming June 4 municipal elections, with the opposition Democratic Party ahead in seven and the New Political Vision Party, led by independent lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo, in one.

Lee Taek-soo, director of the polling organization Real Meter, presented the predictions at a National Assembly seminar on Feb. 25 organized by the Forum for Building National Competitiveness, an association of Saenuri Party (NFP) lawmakers chaired by Yoo Ki-june.

“For the past month, President Park Geun-hye has had an approval rating in the range of 55-57%,” Lee said. “If this trend continues, it’s likely to undercut any attempt by the opposition to make the election into a ‘trial of the administration,’ making the municipal election look more than the 2006 rout of the Democratic Party than the 2010 elections where it came out on top.”

According to Lee, the Saenuri Party has a clear lead in Daegu, North and South Gyeongsang Province, Busan, Ulsan, Daejeon, and Sejong, with thin leads in Gyeonggi Province and Jeju Island. The Democratic Party leads strongly in Seoul and Gangwon Province, with slim edges in Incheon, North and South Chungcheong Province, Gwangju, and South Jeolla Province. The New Political Vision Party was projected to lead in North Jeolla Province.

Lee also weighed in on the Seoul mayoral election.

“The opposition is probably going to rally behind a single candidate, but the Saenuri Party primary is shaping into a three-way race [among candidates Kim Hwang-sik, Lee Hye-hoon, and Chung Mong-joon],” he said. “There’s a chance that some ruling party supporters won’t come out to vote if their candidate takes too much of a hit in the primary. It’s important to have a clean contest.”

Chung, who attended the seminar, gave a somewhat prickly response after being told he lagged behind current Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon among female voters.

“I think the polling may be wrong,” he said.

Lee also said support for “lightweight candidates” in Gyeonggi Province and Incheon was falling away as the Saenuri Party leader pushes to bring in heavyweight faces from elsewhere.

Speaking of the Gyeonggi gubernatorial race, he recommended that lawmaker Nam Kyung-pil “get his position in order quickly.”

Responding to survey reports from the Saenuri Party’s Youido Institute showing the party trailing in the provinces of North and South Chungcheong and Gangwon, Lee said the seats were “worth fighting for, since those are regions that went heavily for Park Geun-hye in the last presidential election.”

Lee went on to discuss the Busan mayoral race, where the ruling party is facing a tough battle.

“It’s looks like the bubble built around Oh Geo-don by the [conservative] general programming networks and other media is bursting a bit,” he said. “The ruling party has a real shot.”

Referring to the Saenuri Party convention scheduled for July 14, Lee said lawmaker Suh Chung-won was likely to take the reins if the party wins in the local elections, while fellow lawmaker Kim Moo-sung would take over if it loses.

“But the municipal election results could also end up being inconclusive,” he added.

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