hankyoreh

Mar. 3. The six-member committee was formed with three members from each side. (by Lee Jeong-woo

By Kim Jong-cheol, political correspondent

In the wake of the announcement that the Democratic Party and independent lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo’s New Political Vision Party (NPVP) are merging to form a new party, the ruling and opposition parties are throwing their whole weight behind preparations for the local elections, which will be held on June 4, only 90 days from now. Both sides are moving swiftly to field the strongest candidates for each contest, with a particular focus on the main mayoral and gubernatorial elections.

In the Saenuri Party (NFP), Security and Public Administration Minister Yoo Jeong-bok, and former lawmaker Won Hee-ryong are strongly considering making a bid for key positions. Yoo for mayor of Incheon, and Won for governor of Jeju Island.

It has been confirmed that Saenuri lawmaker Nam Kyung-pil will run for governor of Gyeonggi Province. Nam reportedly made his intentions known to fellow lawmaker Jeong Byeong-guk, saying, “This was the inevitable choice”.

Yoo added a post to his Facebook page about a potential election bid. “Given repeated calls for me to run and the current political situation,” Yoo said, “I need time to make up my mind, so I requested some vacation time this morning. I will announce my intention when I return from my vacation.” It appears that Yoo will hold a press conference to announce his candidacy on Mar. 5, one day before the deadline for stepping down from his position as minister.

“At first, I hadn’t even considered running for office,” Won told a Hankyoreh reporter over the phone, “but the party has been really pushing me to run. I am keeping the option open and talking things over with the party. If the party takes responsible measures [to create the right conditions for running] I will make a responsible decision.”

Leading opposition candidates who had been undecided about running for office have picked up the pace as well.

Kim Sang-gon, superintendent of schools for Gyeonggi Province, had said he would not run for governor of Gyeonggi Province unless he was the unified opposition candidate. Following the announcement that the opposition parties would be merging, Kim seems to have made a firm decision to run.

On Mar. 3, Kim suggested that he had made up his mind, telling friends that he could not deny the demands of the age. Kim will hold a press conference on Mar. 4 to announce his plans.

Former Oceans and Fisheries Minister Oh Geo-dong met with Ahn Cheol-soo in Seoul on the afternoon of Mar. 3 to discuss the possibility of running for mayor of Busan. While Oh expressed his view that running as an independent would increase his chances of winning, Ahn urged him to join the unified new party, sources say.

After the meeting, Oh appeared on Chosun TV and said, “We absolutely need a revolution by a new unified party and I promise to run for Busan mayor as an independent. But independent candidates face some limitations, so it’s possible that at the appropriate time in the future I’ll make a new choice.” This suggests that Oh could eventually join the new unified opposition party.

There have been local elections in the past where big-name politicians have been nominated for elections in Seoul and the capital area, but this is the first time that the ruling and opposition parties have fully mobilized all of their available resources in this way.

The all-or-nothing strategy adopted by the opposing sides could be the result of a shift in the electoral landscape. While the initial expectations were that the opposition vote would be divided among candidates from multiple opposition parties, the agreement that the opposition parties to merge has resulted in what will effectively be a one-on-one duel between the ruling party and the opposition.

“With the launch of a unified opposition party, the political scene has changed from a playing field that was tilted to the ruling party to a level playing field,” said Choi Chang-ryul, a professor at Yong In University. “Now that both sides have a fighting chance, it seems that opposition supporters are showing more political engagement, and the ruling party also seems to be consolidating its support.”

This is corroborated by public opinion polls that have been taken since the announcement of the merger. The gap between parties’ approval ratings has narrowed, with 40.0% favoring the Saenuri Party and 34.3% supporting the new unified party according to Naeil Shinmun and The Opinion.

A poll that Fact TV and Research View carried out on voter support for the two parties’ candidates forecasts a neck-and-neck race between Saenuri candidates (43.3%) and candidates for the new unified party (42.1%).

Both sides are also expected to struggle fiercely to enjoy the so-called convention effect - a jump in approval following extensive media coverage during the candidate nomination process. The Saenuri Party hopes to use the faceoff between lawmaker Chung Mong-joon and former Prime Minister Kim Hwang-shik for the Seoul mayoral election and the primary battle between lawmakers Nam Kyung-pil, Jeong Byeong-guk, and Won Yu-cheol to give its candidates a boost in the Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election.

The strategy for the Democratic Party and the New Political Vision Party is to achieve synergy during the process of unifying and forging a new party, with party leaders Kim Han-gil and Ahn Cheol-soo touring the country through the end of March.

“The opposition’s decision to come together has made the political situation similar to what it was at the beginning of the presidential campaign in 2012,” said Lee Gang-yun, a political commentator. “The ruling party and the opposition parties appear to have decided that they cannot afford to lose any ground in this election, given the battle for the upper hand during the second year of Park Geun-hye’s presidency and with an eye on the parliamentary election in 2016 and the presidential election in 2017.”

The opposition parties’ announcement that they will be merging has effectively rendered obsolete the previous polls carried out by the Saenuri Party under the assumption of a three-way race.

While acknowledging the difficulty of making detailed predictions right away given the abrupt change in the public opinion equation, opinion poll experts predicted that the two opposition parties could enjoy a synergy effect - with the whole being greater than the sum of the parts - if the party unification and nomination of candidates for the local elections go smoothly.

As of Feb. 28, the approval rating for the parties was 40% for the Saenuri Party, 15% for the Democratic Party, and 18% for the New Political Vision Party, according to Gallup Korea.

Polling experts believe it is clear that the political situation has shifted to the advantage of the opposition with the election changing from three-way to one-on-one.

“The most important part of an election is its structure,” said Jang Deok-hyun, a department head at Gallup Korea. “While there could be discord during the process of creating the new party, the change works to the advantage of the opposition party, since the options for opposition supporters have decreased from two to one.”

“In the end, the structure will be similar to the previous presidential election,” said Yun Hui-ung, director of Min Consulting’s public opinion analysis center . “The ruling party is sure to find questions about its ability to judge and check the power of government to be more of an issue.”

“The situation is different from a tactical unification based on regional considerations such as the DJP coalition [between Kim Jong-pil and Kim Dae-jung],” said Lim Sang-ryel, president of Research Plus. “Merging the parties to create a one-on-one race obviously works to the advantage of the opposition party.”

Polling experts were unanimous in saying that Seoul mayor Park Won-soon stood to gain the most from the establishment of the new unified opposition party. Park’s chances in a three-way election for the mayoralty of Seoul including candidates from the Saenuri Party and the New Political Vision Party had not been rosy, and he is expected to enjoy the biggest boost from the unification of the parties.

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