hankyoreh

By Cho Hye-jeong, staff reporter

Running contrary to most observers’ predictions that the sinking of the Sewol ferry would have a large effect on the June 4 local elections, the outcome of several recent public opinion polls have not shown significant difference with that of polls before the disaster.

While the approval rating of President Park Geun-hye has dropped and there is a growing sense that the government and ruling party should be held accountable for the tragedy, the support for candidates in the local elections reported in polls before and after the tragedy has been largely the same. This is likely because voters have not yet been able to devote much attention to the elections.

On May 7, the Joongang Ilbo published the results of a poll of 800 residents of Gyeonggi Province that Gallup Korea carried out from May 1 to May 5. The poll showed that the gap between the ruling Saenuri Party (NFP) and New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) gubernatorial candidates for Gyeonggi Province, Nam Kyung-pil and Kim Jin-pyo, had hardly changed even after the Sewol disaster.

Since most of the victims and their families from the Sewol accident are from Gyeonggi Province, it was expected that the ruling party would lose public support. But the poll showed that Nam had a 15.9% lead over Kim in a head-to-head race, leading 42.8% to 26.9%. The poll had a reliability of 95% with a ±3.5% margin of error. Nam was 13.9% ahead of Kim in a poll taken on Mar. 6, with a lead of 45% to 31.1%.

The disaster did not change the race in Busan, either, where the Saenuri candidate has stayed in the lead. Seo Byeong-su and Kim Yeong-chun, who are the respective candidates for the Saenuri Party and the New Politics Alliance for Democracy, enjoyed a small boost from the convention effect, but the election outlook remains the same.

A poll of 1,000 Busan residents carried out by Research & Research from May 4-5 on behalf of Kookje Shinmun, a local newspaper, showed Seo (39.3%) with a comfortable lead over NPAD candidate Kim Yeong-chun (11.3%) and independent candidate Oh Geo-don (24.6%). The reliability of the poll is 95%, with a ±3.1% rate of error. When the same poll was carried out in Feb. 2014, the results were basically the same, with Seo at 34.9%, Kim at 6.5%, and Oh at 25.2%.

Polls show that candidates for the mayoralty of Incheon, who were in a dead heat even before the accident, are still neck and neck. A March poll by the Maeil Business Newspaper showed Saenuri Party lawmaker Yu Jeong-bok and incumbent Song Young-gil in an extremely tight race at 39.2% and 39.1%, and the results were the same in a poll that was conducted from May 3 to May 5. This survey of 600 residents of Incheon, which Matrix conducted after being commissioned by Maeil Business Newspaper, showed Yu with 36.0% of the vote and Song with 39.6%, still within the margin of error (±4% with a reliability of 95%).

This is at odds with what political observers predicted after the Sewol accident. Among several polls whose results were published on Wednesday, the only candidate whose support plunged was Saenuri Party lawmaker Chung Mong-joon, and that shift appears to be connected with Chung’s son making online comments on South Korean public sentiment being “uncivilized” after the Sewol sinking.

“While the Sewol tragedy sparked a lot of criticism of the government and the ruling party, it appears to be having little effect on the election because it is fundamentally not a political issue,” a poll expert at one polling company said in regard to the trend. “Even if voters stop supporting the Saenuri Party, they will switch their allegiance to independents; they’re not going to give their support to the New Politics Alliance for Democracy.”

“In the end, the candidates for the New Politics Alliance for Democracy will have to fend for themselves,” the expert said on condition of anonymity.

“The public has been given a reason to cast judgment on the Park Geun-hye administration, but this does not indicate which direction voters should move. That is to say, there is no reason for the public to put its support behind either of the parties. This is why the judgment of the government and the choice of candidates are separate matters,” said commentator Kim Jong-bae.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]