[Analysis] ‘Park Geun-hye marketing’ saves ruling party from total defeat

Posted on : 2014-06-05 16:31 KST Modified on : 2014-06-05 16:31 KST
Opposition wins some criticial races, but ruling party’s marketing defends strongholds in close contests
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By Seong Han-yong, political correspondent

A South Korean public angered by April’s Sewol ferry tragedy sent a strong warning to the Park Geun-hye administration in the June 4 municipal elections.

Results showed the ruling Saenuri Party (NFP) suffering an unexpected rout in the Chungcheong provinces, which provided crucial support for Park in the 2012 presidential election. Opposition candidates also put in strong showings in Busan and ruling party stronghold Daegu, but were unable to beat back the combination of regionalism and marketing of Park.

The biggest single influence on the outcome was the sinking of the Sewol ferry on Apr. 16. Before the disaster, Saenuri candidates, including Seoul mayoral candidate Chung Mong-joon, had been expected to pick up local government head positions in the Seoul area and central part of the country.

That situation changed after the sinking. While the disaster, which took over 300 lives, was a shock in itself, the response to it showed the Coast Guard and Ministry of Security and Public Administration helpless to rescue anyone, and Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries officials who shirked their role in safety oversight. It made sense, then, for the public to direct its anger at the people in power at the time: Park Geun-hye and her Saenuri Party.

Ruling party wins in Gyeonggi Province and Incheon suggest that the anger did not lead a full-scale “day of judgment” for the administration. But progressive-leaning education commissioner candidates won in 13 of the 17 provinces and metropolitan cities where they were running, the only exceptions being Daegu, Ulsan, Daejeon and North Gyeongsang Province. Analysts are reading the outcome in two ways.

First, the Saenuri Party appears to have been at least partly successful with its marketing push using Park‘s image. As the election drew closer, the party came out with appeals for the public to “wipe the President’s tears” and “save the President,” which seem to have gone over very well in traditional strongholds Busan and Daegu. Just before election day, various public opinion indicators suggested opposition candidates Oh Geo-don and Kim Boo-kyum would respectively pull out wins there, but exit polling told a totally different story, indicating a last-minute shift in voter sentiments.

The second factor was the limitations of the main opposition party, the New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD). Under the leadership of lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo, it fought a consistently listless election, failing to establish any clear issues or steer the situation in its favor. Before the election, many experts were already predicting its party approval ratings, which hovered below 30%, wouldn’t be enough to win it a significant victory.

For the ruling party, holding on to Busan and Daegu is significant politically. A loss in Busan, where the candidate was close Park associate Suh Byung-soo, or in Daegu, considered a ruling party stronghold, would have been an incalculable political blow for both Park and her party.

The question now is which side will seize the initiative in the election’s wake. Park appears poised to use her upcoming Prime Minister and National Intelligence Service director appointments and a Cabinet reshuffle to soothe the public’s anger. Many are also predicting she will take a tighter grip on the party. This would mean stronger roles for key Park wing members like Saenuri floor leader Lee Wan-koo and party secretary-general Yoon Sang-hyun.

The ruling party’s upcoming convention on July 14 is also a focus of attention, with lawmakers Suh Chung-won and Kim Moo-sung and former Gyeonggi Gov. Kim Moon-soo vying for the party leadership. Suh, who counts on Park’s support, is expected to campaign hard for the position.

Before the new leadership is elected, the party also needs to nominate candidates for the by-elections on July 30. Right now, the party’s control is in the hands of Lee Wan-koo, the emergency committee chief and floor leader. This means that the authority to name by-election candidates effectively lies with Park.

As for the NPAD and co-leaders Kim Han-gil and Ahn Cheol-soo, their future is uncertain. Some time will be needed before it becomes clear how the party interpreted the results of the June 4 elections. The win for Yoon Jang-hyun in Gwangju, where there had been delays in the nomination, and the unexpected triumphs in the Chungcheong region mean the two leaders don’t have anything specific to answer for at the moment.

With the election out of the way, the National Assembly’s order of business includes a parliamentary inquiry into the Sewol sinking and nomination hearings for the new Prime Minister and Cabinet members. If the NPAD hopes for a political turnaround, it has to find it there. Of course, the upcoming by-election could also offer a new opportunity for the party.

 

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