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South Korea’s population will begin a natural decline around 2028 as low birth rates and an aging population trend leave the country with more deaths than births, a Statistics Korea report predicts.

The report also forecasts a population decline beginning around 2030 for the greater Seoul area, which accounts for roughly half the South Korean population.

Released on Dec. 11, the Statistics Korea report titled “Attempted Estimate of Future Population, 2013-2040” predicts the start of a population decline fourteen years from now in 2028, with 431,000 deaths to 425,000 births, or a decrease of 6,000 people.

The number of newborns is predicted to continue a steady decline from 456,000 in 2013 to 325,000 in 2040, while the number of deaths is expected to rise from 289,000 to 576,000 over the same period, exacerbating the natural population decline.

The Statistics Korea study was based on recent trends observed in the 2010 population and housing census and special census conducted last year for the city of Sejong.

The population of greater Seoul - an area that includes the city proper, nearby Incheon and surrounding Gyeonggi Province - is expected to continue growing, reaching 26.18 million, or 50.2% of the country’s population, in 2029 before beginning its own decline the following year.

Seoul’s population is predicted to decline from 9,930,000 in 2013 to 9,160,000 in 2040, a decrease of 770,000 people. Gyeonggi Province‘s population is expected to rise from 12,140,000 in 2013 to a peak of 13,470,000 in 2031 before declining to 13,250,000 by 2040.

By Kim So-youn, staff reporter

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