hankyoreh

chanting slogans protesting her government’s destruction of democracy

Aside from its historical significance and consequences, the disbandment of a political party through the unelected judiciary instead of a public referendum has cast a pall over the current political situation in South Korea.

Following the Constitutional Court’s decision to disband the Unified Progressive Party (UPP) on Dec. 19, South Korea’s two largest political parties - the ruling Saenuri Party (NFP) and the opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) - are responding in different ways, with no one able to predict with certainty how the situation will play out.

One veteran politician offered the following view on the court’s decision. “No one knows what the results will be. Do you think that conservatives are happy about the decision to dissolve the UPP? Certainly not! Just as the opposite decision would not have been a victory for progressives, this decision is not a victory for conservatives. There will be some fallout from the decision, but we’ll have to wait to find out,” the politician said.

The remarks imply that we will have to wait and see what direction popular sentiment will move and what unexpected developments there might be. Another important variable is how South Korea’s leading political forces will react to the decision.

To begin with, the Blue House, the government, and the Saenuri Party are expected to gradually move forward with the plan that they drew up when they first asked the court to disband the Unified Progressive Party (UPP). The gist of this plan is to stymie the growth of moderate parties - including the NPAD - through a strategy of dividing and isolating progressive political forces.

The by-elections that will be held next year following the court’s decision to disband the UPP are only the beginning. The strategy of isolation and obstruction could well continue through the parliamentary elections in 2016 and the presidential election the year after that.

It is very likely that the members of the UPP will attempt to rebuild their party and continue their resistance in some form or the other, prompting the government, the prosecutors, and the Saenuri Party to once again brand them as pro-North Korea.

The fact that the court’s decision makes it possible to reject the registration of any party whose platform is similar to that of the UPP will become a handy weapon for conservatives to wield at will. It is patently obvious that elements of the UPP platform including “popular sovereignty” and “progressive democracy” will be accused of being pro-North Korean.

For the NPAD, it will become more difficult to forge a coalition with opposition parties, while progressive parties that have taken a different tack from the UPP will find themselves with less room to maneuver.

Meanwhile, with President Park’s approval rating falling below 40% only two years after her election, the Blue House will be unable to resist the temptation to capitalize on security threats as a means of overcoming its own crisis.

There is a strong likelihood that developments at the end of this year and early next year will be in favor of the Saenuri Party. The Blue House and the Saenuri Party seem to be welcoming the court’s decision as a chance to shift attention from accusations about Chung Yoon-hoi’s interference in government, which had put them on the defensive.

“It’s obvious that the court’s decision will turn public attention away from charges about meddling in state affairs and toward the dissolution of the Unified Progressive Party. The UPP, which the court has ordered must be dissolved, and the lawmakers who will lose their seats will keep trying to make an issue of the court’s decision as well,” said one second-term lawmaker with the Saenuri Party.

“For the Saenuri Party, the ruling could be an opportunity to extricate itself from a somewhat uncomfortable situation,” the lawmaker said.

At the moment, the Saenuri Party is taking steps to blame the NPAD for the progressive coalition with the UPP in order to drown out the NPAD’s calls for a thorough investigation of the scandal involving the Blue House document that accused Chung Yoon-hoi of meddling in the affairs of state. The Saenuri Party argues that the NPAD is partially to blame for enabling UPP lawmakers to enter the National Assembly, since it formed a progressive coalition with the UPP in the 2012.

“Whatever else may happen, the New Politics Alliance for Democracy will take a hit in public opinion for having formed a progressive coalition with the UPP, which the Constitutional Court has ruled must be disbanded,” said Jang Yun-seok, lawmaker for the Saenuri Party.

Some analysts believe that the court’s decision will also have an effect on the NPAD convention in Feb. 2015, at which the next leaders of the party will be elected, and the by-elections after that.

“Some lawmakers in the NPAD think that the party should distance itself from the Unified Progressive Party, while others are opposed to the dissolution of the party. Not only will this bring the division between the hardliners and the moderates to a head, but it will also have an impact on the inevitable calls for a progressive coalition that are made before every election,” said a Saenuri Party lawmaker from Gangwon Province.

However, there are also some members of the Saenuri Party who are concerned about a backlash to the decision.

“People may find it suspicious that the Constitutional Court made its decision to disband the UPP on the second anniversary of President Park’s election, just as allegations are being raised about behind-the-scenes figures interfering in state affairs. Indeed, the decision could work against [President Park] in connection with the prosecutors’ announcement about the results of their investigation into the Blue House document and the revised bill for public servants’ pension,” said one second-term Saenuri Party lawmaker, on condition of anonymity.

By Seok Jin-hwan, Blue House correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]