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China is ratcheting up the tenor of its opposition to the possible deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on the Korean peninsula in the wake of a recent visit by Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Liu Jianchao.

Meanwhile, South Korea and the US are responding on increasingly firm notes. After previously sending the cautious message that nothing had been decided or discussed, they are now bluntly insisting that Beijing keep out the matter.

US Forces Korea also looks to be speeding up its preparations, delivering its first confirmation of recent surveys of THAAD candidate sites.

It is still too early to tell what the specifics of Beijing’s response will be. But it appears unlikely to remain passive if the US deploys THAAD, a missile interception system, on the Korean Peninsula, as China sees it as a threat to key military security interests.

Beijing has yet to speak publicly about the specific reasons for its opposition. But its concern appears to be that the USFK system is a response to its own A2/AD strategy for preventing the introduction of US troops in the event of an emergency.

A2/AD, which stands for “anti-access/area denial,” is a strategy for preventing US troops from accessing sites like Taiwan or the Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu in China) under an emergency scenario (anti-access) and preventing effective mobile operations by US forces (area denial). As part of the strategy, China has reportedly developed and deployed the Dong-Feng 21 (DF-21) ballistic missile, new anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), and nuclear-power submarines and drafted scenarios for preventing US naval and air forces from reaching a second island chain (maritime defense line) and first island chain.

The focus of attention for many is the inclusion of both US bases in South Korea and Japan as targets for A2/AD strikes. China is also reportedly working on a strategy for potentially ambushing and knocking out Air Force bases in Osan, Gyeonggi Province and Gunsan, North Jeolla Province, which it fears could be used as scrambling bases for US aircrafts.

China’s concern has long been that USFK bases could be used against it, rather than simply as deterrents against North Korea. Its fears were fanned after South Korea and the US reached a “strategic flexibility” agreement in Jan. 2006 that guaranteed free access to the peninsula for USFK. The move was an official signal that USFK was not just a fixture of the peninsula, but a force that could be deployed anywhere to suit US needs.

Another US response to China’s A2/AD strategy has been the concept of the Air-Sea Battle (ASB). It describes the use of integrated aerial, land-based, naval, space, and cyberspace operations to break through A2/AD and ensure the effective projection of military forces. It also includes efforts aimed at defending US rearguard units and bases. In 2012, the US established an Air Sea Battle Office to develop the ASB concept.

China‘s concern is that USFK’s deployment of THAAD would take away one of its means of containing US bases in the event of a conflict between the two countries’ military security strategies. This appears to be the reason for its citing of disruption to regional peace, security, and strategic balance as reasons for opposing THAAD.

From a more general East Asian standpoint, USFK deployment of THAAD also increases the likelihood of China seeking out military alternatives for a new means of checking and balancing USFK bases in an emergency. Critics worry that the resulting arms race between the US and China could spiral into a more general one for the countries of Northeast Asia.

“China’s opposition isn’t just about what has been reported so far, namely the fact that THAAD’s X-band radar could be used to spy on the mainland,” said a high-ranking South Korea military officer on condition of anonymity.

“It‘s the judgment of military authorities that we ought to be looking at this within the broader framework of key interests in military security strategy between the US and China,” the officer added.

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer

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