hankyoreh

according to the NIS

North Korean watchers are divided on the meaning of the recent purge of Minister of the People’s Armed Forces Hyon Yong-chol, with some seeing it as a sign of the Kim Jong-un regime’s growing instability and others as stabilization.

Still others are saying the National Intelligence Service (NIS) may have been premature in reporting Hyon’s purge in the first place.

According to the NIS, Hyon’s execution by firing squad shows the instability of the regime in Pyongyang, but was not a clear sign of revolt within it.

“It’s a general process for dictatorial regimes to establish a broad ruling group and then use purges to pare it back to a core group to cut costs,” explained a senior NIS agent on condition of anonymity. “That‘s the process we’re seeing under way with Kim Jong-un.”

High-ranking North Korean officials executed since Kim Jong-un took power

“You couldn’t call the regime rock solid, but it’s still too early to call this a signal of possible troubles,” the agent added. “The conditions aren’t really there for North Korean officials to go from fear to anger after hearing about the execution either.”

Another high-ranking NIS agent said there were “still no signs of any power battle in North Korea.”

Some North Korea experts saw the purge as a way of bringing the military in line and establishing Kim as the uncontested leader.

“This purge is Kim Jong-un’s way of breaking the military in,” said Kim Dong-yeop, a research professor at the Kyungnam University Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

“He had wanted to have the Cabinet assume the military’s foreign currency efforts, and it didn’t work out the way he had planned because of objections from the military,” Kim explained. “So he’s putting powerful pressure on the military by executing the Minister of the People’s Armed Forces.”

Another take on the purge connected it with Hyon’s visit to Russia in April. The claim is that Hyon, who was visiting in his role as Minister of the People’s Armed Forces, was punished for a mistake in preliminary talks with Moscow over an upcoming visit by Kim.

“We’re considering that possibility,” an NIS agent said of the Russian visit explanation. “We don’t have concrete information yet, so we‘re still looking into it.”

An Chan-il, director of the World Institute for North Korea Studies and a onetime platoon commander in the People’s Army, said the problem may have stemmed from Pyongyang‘s weapon purchases from Russia.

“North Korea wanted to pay in materials, and Russia wanted payment in cash,” An explained. “It may be that Hyon was held responsible for not getting what North Korea wanted.”

The purge could deepen the regime’s instability, resulting not in the desired “breaking in” but in mounting discontent.

“The purge was done too quickly and involved too many people for it to be seen as part of a cyclical process with the older and newer generations,” said An.

“It’s going to be a potential source of instability at a time when the Kim Jong-un regime hasn’t fully established itself,” he predicted.

Kim Geun-sik, a professor in the department of political science and diplomacy at Kyungnam University, said the purge “looks more like a spontaneous summary judgment than the kind of factional purges you saw during the Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il eras.”

“While the politics of terror may be a way of cementing discipline among the political elites, it’s also likely to exacerbate instability because you can’t control them and gain their trust,” Kim said.

Meanwhile, it may be advisable to exercise caution in concluding that Hyon was executed at all.

Hyon’s presence alongside Kim Jong-un in archival footage of the leader’s military activities broadcast on May 5 to 11, along with the lack of any revisions to articles mentioning Hyon in the Rodong Sinmun newspaper, are being cited as possible evidence.

“It’s inconceivable that he would be appearing on television for ten days after his execution,” said Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Unification Strategy Studies department at the Sejong Institute.

“While he may indeed have been punished, there are a lot of questions as far as whether he was purged or executed,” Jung said.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, questioned whether the NIS “may have had some political motives for reporting unconfirmed intelligence before the National Assembly.”

The string of high-level purges in North Korea could weaken support in the South for inter-Korean exchange.

“What we could end up seeing is growing negative feelings about inter-Korean dialogue among South Koreans,” warned Kim Chang-soo, director of research at the Korea National Strategy Institute.

“One concern is that the Park Geun-hye administration could go more in the direction of increasing tensions rather than relaxing them in relations with the North,” Kim said.

By Kim Ji-hoon and Kim Oi-hyun, staff reporters

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