[Analysis] History textbooks: a ruling party gamble that could backfire

Posted on : 2015-10-15 17:16 KST Modified on : 2015-10-15 17:16 KST
Experts suggest textbook decision more about Pres. Park‘s convictions than a strategy for 2016 parliamentary elections
 at the campus in Seoul’s Sungbok district
at the campus in Seoul’s Sungbok district

The issue of a single Korean history textbook designation is escalating from demonstrations into a fierce national debate.

President Park Geun-hye claimed the decision to designate textbooks was made because “history education and political debates should not be allowed to create ideological conflict and divide the South Korean people.” But the rifts and conflict are, if anything, only deepening. While the administration and ruling Saenuri Party (NFP) are claiming they have support from half the country in going ahead with the single textbook, the decision could come back to haunt them in the 2016 parliamentary elections.

Recent opinion polls have shown a clear divide among the South Korean public on the textbook issue. An Oct. 14 survey by Money Today and Real Meter showed 47.6% of respondents supporting the designated textbooks and 44.7% opposing them. The opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) released its own polling findings on Oct. 13 showing 44% in support and 48.1% against. A previous NPAD poll the week before showed similarly close numbers, with 44% support and 42.9% opposition.

At one level, the situation could be read as one where supporters on both sides are rallying behind their parties over the designation issue. Indeed, a closer examination of the polling findings shows opinions sharply divided between ruling and opposition party supporters.

The administration and ruling party are currently planning to go ahead with the designated textbooks, arguing that the polling numbers suggest little chance they will take a hit in public approval. The reasoning is that Park’s support ratings have remained solid at just under 50%, while Saenuri approval ratings have shown little movement. Analysts also suggest they may have concluded that the issue will help to rally conservatives for next year’s general election. Calls for “caution” within the party appear to have quieted down.

But experts predicted the philosophical battle over the textbooks is more likely to be a burden for the Saenuri Party during the election, when it is likely to appear stale and uninteresting.

“This emerging philosophical debate could be advantageous for the ruling party, in that it can cover up the current President’s underperformance,” acknowledged Park Sung-min, director of Min Consulting.

“But [the textbook decision] appears to be less about a general election strategy and more about Park Geun-hye’s own convictions,” Park said.

The argument is that the decision is more a reflection of Park’s personal aims of fighting “pro-North Korea forces” and rebuilding the nation -- as with her disbandment of the Unified Progressive Party and selection of former public security prosecutors for important government positions.

“Ultimately, this election is going to be a day of judgment for the Park Geun-hye administration,” said Yoon Hee-woong, director of the Opinion Live public opinion analysis center.

“If they turn this into a war of ideas, then it could trigger a sensitive reaction from opposition party supporters that won‘t benefit the ruling party,” Yoon predicted.

Indeed, polling numbers for moderates and student parents in their forties have shown high rates of opposition to the designated textbooks. A Real Meter survey found 55.5% of self-described moderate respondents opposed to the system -- far more than the 41% who expressed support. An NPAD survey found rates of 36.9% support and 55.8% opposition among respondents in their forties.

“What the public is going to respond more keenly to during the election is not political philosophy, but issues with the Park administration’s handling of the economy and livelihood issues,” Yoon predicted.

“There haven’t been any cases of the ruling party succeeding in an election where a philosophical debate has turned into a major issue, such as with the National Security Law, the Private Education Act, or the Cheonan sinking,” he noted.

While none have gone on record, many Saenuri lawmakers in the greater Seoul area have advised caution on just those grounds, questioning the need to tinker with textbooks while labor reforms and other major issues remain unresolved. The opposition has also remained cautious with the National Assembly agenda and possible ties to the budget.

By Lee Seung-joon, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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