Latest poll shows a sharper turn against state-issued history textbooks

Posted on : 2015-10-23 16:32 KST Modified on : 2015-10-23 16:32 KST
Compared to just ten days earlier, more Seoul residents and politically-unaffiliated moderates opposing the measure

The tide of public opinion is swiftly turning against state designation of Korean history textbooks.

Support for the measure has been shrinking as scholars, politicians, and civil society have quickly rallied against it in the wake of the Education Ministry’s administrative notice on the upcoming introduction of a designation system on Oct. 12. A major factor in the changing attitudes is a shift toward opposition from greater Seoul area residents and unaffiliated moderates who had previously been lukewarm or undecided on the textbook matter.

Results on Oct. 23 from a poll on support for the measure by the public opinion research organization Real Meter showed a double-digit lead in opposition to the designation system, with 52.7% of respondents opposing the measure and 41.7% supporting it.

The findings had shifted sharply from a poll ten days before that showed a relatively close division of 47.6% for and 44.7% against.

The newer shift is also in line with opinion trends reported by the opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy on Oct. 20. A poll commissioned by the party with the agency Time Research showed a 6.6 percentage point jump in opposition from the week before, with support for designation falling by 6.4 percentage points.

The Real Meter poll showed clear shifts in attitudes among greater Seoul residents, respondents in their twenties, and supporters of the ruling Saenuri Party (NFP). In Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, support fell 7.5 percentage points to 36.4% from 43.9% ten days before, while opposition rose by 11.9 percentage points from 46.4% to 58.3% over the same period. Among self-declared NFP supporters, support for designation fell by 8.2 percentage points, while opposition rose by 9.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, respondents in their twenties shifted even more sharply toward opposition, but a 17.1 percentage point decrease in support from 38.7% to 21.5% and a 20.9 percentage point increase in opposition from 57.5% to 78.4%.

“The fact that an overwhelming majority of historians have come out in collective action against designation appears to have been a decisive factor,” said Real Meter president Lee Taek-soo.

The analysis is that the balance of opinions for and against designation, which had been close just before the ministry’s announcement, has begun shifting toward opposition after numerous history professors nationwide followed the lead of Yonsei University faculty on Oct. 13 in refusing to participate in the writing of designated textbooks.

“The situation would be very different if it was even a three-to-seven ratio of support among historians,” Lee said.

“The ratio for the expert group is one-to-nine,” he added. “The argument in support can’t gain any traction, and now the administration and ruling party have their hands tied after pushing ahead with it.”

Indeed, day-to-day surveys by Real Meter have shown support for both President Park Geun-hye and the Saenuri Party starting to decline since Oct. 13.

Voluntary efforts among university students, including one-person protests, banners, posters, and social media campaigns, appear to have helped rally an overwhelming number of twentysomethings toward opposition.

“The ruling party and conservative media have used the ‘pro-North Korea’ frame for their designation drive, but it hasn’t worked because it has been countered by ‘pro-pluralism’ and ‘anti-dictatorship’ frames from academia and civil society,” said Chung-Ang University sociology professor Shin Jin-wook.

A counterargument positioning the enforcement of a single historical perspective through designated textbooks as “dictatorial” and “the kind of thing that happens in undemocratic countries” appears to have caught on with liberal-leaning younger people, highly educated middle class greater Seoul residents, and rationalist Saenuri supporters -- playing a decisive role in shifting them from a “wait-and-see” attitude toward active opposition.

“If the [opposition] New Politics Alliance for Democracy’s attempts to frame designation as being about ’pro-Japanese collaborators‘ had gone over, they might have increased support for their party, but that didn’t happen,” said Lee Taek-soo.

“It looks like voluntary efforts by experts and civil society have prevented this issue from becoming too politicized and helped to increase opposition from the ‘middle ground,’” he added.

By Lee Se-young, staff reporter

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