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Youth and elderly people as portions of the S. Korean population. Data: Statistics Korea (Unit: %)

South Korea is projected to next year have more people older than 65 than under 15 for the first time in history.

Amid a general population aging trend and low birth rate, the average age of South Koreans stands at 40.7 this year after passing 40 for the first time in 2015.

A report on 2015 social indicators for South Korea published by Statistics Korea on Mar. 23 noted a continuing decline in the percentage of the population aged up to 14 years old. The rate decreased by more than half from 34% in 1980 to 16.1% thirty years later in 2010; this year, the total was an even lower 13.6%. In contrast, the percentage aged 65 and older has soared from 3.8% in 1980 to 13.5% in 2016. Based on current projections, senior citizens will outnumber young people as of next year by a margin of 14% to 13.4%.

The deepening aging trend is also evident in the increase in average population age. In 1980, the average South Korean was 25.9 years old. Last year, the average age was 40.3 years - exceeding 40 for the first time in history. By 2040, it is projected to reach 49.7. In the process, the number of senior citizens supported by every 100 members of the productive population aged 15 to 64 is poised to climb from 18.5 this year and 22.1 in 2020 all the way to 57.2 in 2040.

Meanwhile, the low birth rate trend shows no signs of improving. South Korea’s birth rate remains the lowest among OECD countries, declining from 1.47 in 2000 to 1.23 in 2010 and 1.24 in 2015. Together, the aging and low birth rate trends weaken economic growth potential and lower the potential growth rate. A recent Hyundai Research Institute report on South Korean potential growth rate trends and prospects noted that “labor and capital inputs have dropped off due to the low birth rate and aging trend without the productivity improvements needed to offset this.” If current trends hold, the potential growth is projected to fall from 3.2% for 2011-15 to 2.7% for 2016-20.

While the elderly population continues to increase, satisfaction with consumption declined sharply due to lack of preparation for post-retirement life. A Statistics Korea survey last year showed a 42.3% rate of consumer dissatisfaction among respondents aged 60 and over, or a higher percentage than the 38.1% average across all age groups.

By Kim So-youn, staff reporter

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