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Former Minjoo Party of Korea leader Moon Jae-in kneels as he pays respects at the Gwangju May 18 National Cemetery with Kim Hong-gul

Voters in the Honam region gave a thumbs-down to The Minjoo Party of Korea (TMPK) in the Apr. 13 general election.

While the People’s Party exceeded its target of 20 seats taking 23 of the region‘s 28 districts - including eight in Gwangju and 10 each in North and South Jeolla Provinces - the TMPK ended up with just one seat in South Jeolla and two in North Jeolla.

It was a near-sweep for the People’s Party, which was established in February by lawmaker and software mogul Ahn Cheol-soo. While the party still holds only 38 National Assembly seats (including 13 proportional representative seats) despite its Honam wins, it came away with enough of a voice to avoid being brushed aside by the TMPK in the battle for opposition leadership.

The TMPK put major efforts into winning votes in the region, a traditional liberal stronghold, with former leader Moon Jae-in - who received the most support from Honam in the 2012 presidential election - paying two last-minute “apology visits” late in the campaign.

But voters weren‘t having it. Particularly humbling for the TMPK was its zero-for-eight scorecard in Gwangju, historically the opposition’s heartland. The loss of Honam voters means the election was also an opportunity for them to pass judgment on what had previously been the region‘s top party. The People’s Party message of “building a new opposition” resonated more loudly in Honam than the TMPK‘s efforts to bill itself as the “authorized opposition party.”

Recent patterns in party support for the region suggest the TMPK’s Honam debacle was in the cards for some time. Month-to-month support rates from Gallup Korea showed support for the party - including its previous incarnations as the Democratic United Party and New Politics Alliance for Democracy - hovering around 40% consistently since the 2012 presidential election before tumbling to the low 30% range in Nov. 2015 as internal squabbling over Moon Jae-in‘s behavior intensified. The TMPK had been left with no opportunities for a rebound since mid-January, when the push to form the People’s Party gained steam.

It may be a mistake to regard the results as a show of clear support for the People‘s Party. The decision by Honam voters to give the party so many seats could be interpreted as a strategic choice to pick the lesser of two evils in a region where the likelihood of wins for the ruling Saenuri Party (NFP) candidates was slim. In other words, the People’s Party sweep was less about support for the party and more about expressing disappointment and disaffection with the TMPK by backing a strong alternative.

“We shouldn’t mistake a victory that was the result of the TMPK’s repeated own-goals as being something the People’s Party achieved on its own,” said a Gwangju legal professional familiar with the local situation.

Instead, the People’s Party sweep looks to be the by-product of a complex mix of political factors, including the TMPK’s Gwangju nomination failure, infighting over proportional representation nominations under current party chairperson Kim Jong-in, a lack of confidence in Moon’s competitiveness as a presidential contender, and alienation from the party’s pro-Roh Moo-hyun (president from 2003-2008) mainstream.

While the People’s Party came away the big winner, it also failed to surpass the TMPK in terms of the size of its core supporter ranks. Monthly party support ratings by Gallup Korea showed the People’s Party with “solid support” from around 20% of Honam voters (21% as of March). Even at its lowest, the TMPK ranked roughly in the 25% range. This suggests that while the People’s Party claimed victory due to last-minute support by swing voters, much of its support is less secure - coming more from a bandwagon effect in the region.

“Where the support in Honam goes is all a matter of the drift in the TMPK party leadership and what kind of presidential contender slate it comes up with,” said a TMPK source.

According to this argument, the TMPK could potentially win back Honam voters who are offering strategic support in terms of competitiveness in the “main event” - particularly if the party leadership goes to figures the region finds palatable and politicians it has supported in the past, such as Kim Boo-kyum, Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, and Sohn Hak-kyu, throw their hats in the ring for the presidency.

By Lee Se-young, staff reporter

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