hankyoreh

The leaders of the three main political parties during the Apr. 13 general elections. From left to right

Even before the shock and excitement about the outcome of the general elections on Apr. 13 have subsided, the opposition parties have already started thinking about how to handle the 2017 presidential election.

The fact that the opposition parties are moving forward so hastily despite how much time is left reflects the considerable instability of the basis for their victory in the recent election.

The first idea that is being discussed is an election alliance.

“If the opposition can field a candidate capable of fully expressing the people’s anger, we are not far from the day when there will be a change of power,” said Kim Han-gil, a lawmaker with the People‘s Party, shortly after the election.

But it will probably not be easy to make this a reality, especially since People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo is strongly committed to going it alone. “If we go head to head, we can never win,” Ahn said during an interview with the press.

An election alliance may not be an effective way to gain more votes for the opposition, either. In contrast with the conventional wisdom that a divided ticket leads inevitably to defeat, the Minjoo Party of Korea won seats in the southeast right-wing stronghold Yeongnam region and the People’s Party won over conservative voters by each pursuing their own course in the election.

If the two parties immediately reunited, it is even possible that these voters could return to the fold of the Saenuri Party.

Instead, Ahn has proposed holding a two-round presidential election. Under such a system, if no presidential candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, a second round, or runoff, would be held with the two candidates who received the most votes in the first round.

However, the Saenuri Party is adamantly opposed to revising the Public Official Election Act, and the National Assembly Advancement Act makes such a revision impossible. With all of their seats combined, the three opposition parties only have 167 of a total 300, which is not nearly enough.

Furthermore, the majority view among jurists is that instituting a two-round presidential election system would require a constitutional amendment. Thus, even if a National Assembly speaker appointed by the opposition were to use his or her authority to force a vote on a revision to the Public Official Election Act and such a revision were passed, it would likely be overturned by the Constitutional Court if the Saenuri Party filed a petition against it.

Cheon Ho-seon, former leader of the Justice Party, is calling for unified primaries for all opposition candidates.

“All of the presidential candidates for the opposition need to come under a single roof and hold a primary. That’s the only way for the various opposition parties with their different support bases to unite and to minimize the damage to their power,” Cheon said during a telephone interview with the Hankyoreh on Apr. 17.

Cheon’s idea is that, instead of the three opposition parties selecting their presidential candidates separately and then having talking about an election alliance, those parties should choose their final candidate in a single primary participated in by all of the presidential candidates from the opposition parties.

the Saenuri Party

In such a primary, several million voters would choose a single presidential candidate for the opposition from candidates such as Moon Jae-in, Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, Kim Bu-gyeom and Ahn Hui-jeong for the Minjoo Party of Korea; Ahn Cheol-soo, Cheon Jeong-bae and Jeong Dong-yeong for the People’s Party; and Roh Hoe-chan and Shim Sang-jung for the Justice Party.

An election alliance would be one component of a plan for a coalition government. Before the primary, each of the parties would promise to set up such a government, presuming that their combined candidate wins in 2017. Regardless of who became the presidential candidate, the winner would not take all the spoils but would allow the candidates who lost to play some role in the government.

As it happens, South Korea’s opposition already has some experience with running this kind of coalition government during the “DJP Alliance” in 1997. The Minjoo Party of Korea and the People’s Party are much closer together than the National Congress for New Politics and the United Liberal Democrats were back then.

Since the negotiations for an election alliance that have taken place several times in the past have involved a rocky courtship with no clear rules and a low chance of success, they have caused damage not only to the candidates but also to their support base. But a unified primary would seem to have the advantage of acting as a huge crucible that could melt disparate groups of voters from different regions and with different ideologies into one.

But for this to take place, mutual trust would be essential. Even more essential would be setting fair rules for the primary and giving it close supervision.

A unified primary appears to be the most viable option considering that there is little chance of the opposition parties combining into one or of a two-round presidential election being held.

Cheon is planning to fine-tune his plan for a unified primary and to officially propose it on behalf of the Justice Party. It remains to be seen how each party will respond to this and how much support the plan will receive in the future.

By Kim Eui-kyum, senior staff writer

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]