hankyoreh

Saenuri Party floor leader Chung Jin-suk (left) and Minjoo Party floor leader Woo Sang-ho (right) give media interviews at Incheon International Airport after returning from the US

A gift basket arrived at the ruling Saenuri Party’s previously barren service table this Chuseok season: United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The holiday was filled with political messages that could be interpreted as signaling Ban’s intent to run for South Korea’s presidency, including his announcement of plans to “return home before mid-January next year” and his desire to “have an opportunity” to report to the South Korean public. For the party’s other presidential prospects - none of whom has cleared the 5% bar in support according to Gallup Korea - it’s a replay of a nasty situation: tasting the bitter pleasure of seeing their names being bandied about, while remaining helpless in the face of the Ban juggernaut.

On the last day of the long holiday week on Sept. 18, the political world once again found itself forced to tackle the issue of Ban in the US. The talk had begun with a New York meeting with Ban on Sept. 15 by National Assembly Speaker Chung Sye-kyun and floor leaders for three parties, who were in US for parliamentarian diplomacy. The leader of the table setting was Saenuri Party floor leader Chung Jin-suk, who like Ban hails from the Chungcheong Province area. After asking Ban to “apply the experience, expertise, and wisdom you‘ve gained over the past ten years on the international stage to domestic issues and future generations,” Chung inquired as to whether Ban “should report something big to the public after returning home.”

“I’d like to have the opportunity,” Ban replied.

Chung also convey to Ban a message from former Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil.

“Do what you make up your mind to do, but grit your teeth while you do it,” the quote said. Chung reportedly received the message while visiting Kim‘s home in Seoul just before the US visit.

When asked by opposition Minjoo Party floor leader Woo Sang-ho when he would be returning to South Korea, Ban answered, “Before mid-January.” With his term as Secretary-General ending on Dec. 31 of this year, the message suggests he plans to return home immediately after wrapping up his ten years at the UN.

In May, Ban needled the political world with several strong hints at a presidential bid during a short South Korea visit of just six days. For four months straight from June to September, his name has ranked first among candidates for all parties in Gallup Korea polls on preferences for the “next political leader,” with support ratings between 26% and 28%. Other figures considered leading Saenuri contenders failed to make much of a mark over the same period: former Seoul Mayor Oh Sei-hoon pulled 5%, while former Saenuri chairperson Kim Moo-sung pulled 2-3%. Lawmaker Yoo Seong-min, Gyeonggi Gov. Nam Kyung-pil, and Jeju Gov. Won Hee-ryong are all stuck below the 5% barrier as well.

“If another Yeongnam figure becomes President, it will be the fourth in a row after Roh Moo-hyun [2003-2008], Lee Myung-bak [2008-2013], and Park Geun-hye [2013-present],” observed a Saenuri lawmaker from the Chungcheong region. (“Yeongnam” refers to South Korea’s southeast area, comprised mainly of Daegu, Busan and Gyeongsang Province, a traditional conservative stronghold. Ban’s home area of Chungcheong is an important swing constituency in parliamentary and presidential elections.)

“There are a lot of people saying, ‘Yeongnam again? Yeongnam isn‘t really appropriate.’”

The effort appears intended to maximize Ban’s appeal by positioning him as a “non-Yeongnam” candidate rather than just the “Chungcheong hope.” At the same time, another aim appears to be attach the “Yeongnam yet again” label not only to Kim and Yoo from the Saenuri Party, but also to the Minjoo Party’s former leader Moon Jae-in, Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, and lawmaker Kim Boo-kyum.

Most of the presidential hopefuls from the Saenuri‘s non-Park wing are now questioning if anything can be done for now about the party leadership going to the US to build Ban up.

“There is a positive side when someone overseas raises the public’s hopes with a message every time it‘s appropriate,” said Oh Sei-hoon in a telephone interview with the Hankyoreh. “I think it will be a great tonic for the Saenuri Party’s presidential convention.”

A representative for Kim Moo-sung declared Ban “the only card available for breaking through the ruling party‘s current crisis.”

“It’s not a bad thing to have the public’s attention drawn to the ruling party instead of focusing on the opposition’s leading presidential contenders,” the representative added.

But Ban could just be the kindling. The prediction is that once he actually makes it onto the convention stage, he won’t last through the screening process - which may be closer to wishful thinking for the Saenuri Party’s other hopefuls.

“It may be noteworthy that he has support in the upper 20% range despite never having been involved in politics, but it’s also clearly a limitation when he can’t clear 30%,” said a source with one presidential hopeful’s camp.

A source with another contender’s camp noted, “Lee Hoi-chang in Jan. 2002, Goh Kun in Jan. 2007, and Ahn Cheol-soo in Jan. 2012 all had the top support ratings, but none of them became President that year.”

By Kim Nam-il, staff reporter

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