hankyoreh

Saenuri floor leader Chung Jin-suk addresses a meeting of the party’s Supreme Council

The political schedule remains in a fog after President Park Geun-hye’s recent third public address, in which she mentioned the possibility of her term being shortened. It’s hard to know what obstacles are lurking there until a collision occurs. All possibilities are a matter of pure statistical odds.

The day after the address, leaders of the three main opposition parties met on Nov. 30 to agree on pushing for Park’s impeachment and prosecution as scheduled, while rejecting any negotiations with the ruling Saenuri Party. The possibility of the two sides negotiating a shortening of Park’s term and an “orderly departure” appear gone for now - all that remains is the path toward impeachment and prosecution. A vote appears more likely to happen on Dec. 9 than on Dec. 2, as the Saenuri Party’s non-Park faction - which holds the deciding vote - needs to be given more time. Dec. 2 is also the date the 2017 budget plan needs to be passed.

Floor leader Chung Jin-suk and other members of the Saenuri Party are pushing hard to delay an impeachment and prosecution vote until after Dec. 9. But they have their work cut out for them bucking the tide of public anger in the wake of Park’s third address. Popular demands for impeachment have crossed the threshold of impatience; another candlelight demonstration is set to take place on Dec. 3.

The parliamentary investigation is another potential variable. While the first hearings on Dec. 6 are to involve heads of corporations linked to coerced donations, the second ones on Dec. 7 will include a number of key players as witnesses, including Choi Sun-sil herself. Television is an emotional medium. So far, the public has not heard Choi or Cha Eun-taek speak or seen their facial expressions. The words and actions conveyed vividly through the hearings could further fan the flames for an enraged public.

Given the various factors, and barring any extraordinary developments, the impeachment and prosecution vote appears likely to happen in the National Assembly on Dec. 9. If it is approved, Park would face a suspension in her duties. This would bring her runaway train to a halt - but in political terms, it would also mean a qualitatively different state of affairs. It’s the same principle that applies in the game of Go: once you’ve made your move, what happens next is often something you never reckoned on in your head.

The biggest fear is that the situation could become even more complicated than it is now. The biggest reason for the current confusion is uncertainty over the outcome of the impeachment adjudication. For the moment, it’s impossible to predict what the conclusion will be. An impeachment decision would have to be supported by six Constitutional Court justices. Even if five of the nine agree, the impeachment would be rejected. Given the political leanings of the judges and the number needed, it‘s impossible to bank on the impeachment surviving. If it is tossed out, the result would be an exoneration and triumphant resurrection for Park - but the Republic of Korea could be in for an era of insurrection beyond anyone’s control.

Even if the impeachment does succeed, the timeline becomes another issue. In 2004, the Constitutional Court took 63 days to reach a conclusion on the impeachment of then-President Roh Moo-hyun. It‘s impossible to know how long the process will take this time. If it lasts two to three months, that would mean adjudication in February or March and an early presidential election in April or May - ahead of the schedule proposed by senior ruling and opposition party politicians, who suggested an April resignation and June election. The election would obviously be moved up sooner if Park decides to step down while the Constitutional Court impeachment adjudication is under way.

What are the politicians and parties to do while the adjudication is happening? They will need to prepare for an election, discuss amending the Constitution, and reshuffle the political ranks. Managing all of that successfully at the same time is impossible; a free-for-all appears more likely. To begin with, the parties have no reason or justification for holding presidential primaries while the issue of Park’s impeachment remains undecided. The different parties’ nominees appear likely to be decided through political negotiations and deals among potential candidates.

Second, amending the Constitution is a tall order. It would require approval by at least two-thirds of registered lawmakers. The Minjoo Party’s former leader Moon Jae-in and current leader Choo Mi-ae are both opposed to it. Can Kim Moo-sung, Sohn Hak-kyu, Kim Jong-in, and Park Jie-won successfully form an anti-Moon alliance to pass the amendment? The odds look poor.

The third matter, a reshuffling of the political ranks, is a possibility. Ban Ki-moon is scheduled to return to South Korea in January after the end of his term as UN Secretary-General. The pro-Park and non-Park factions of the Saenuri Party are sure to attempt some form of conservative reconfiguration rather than grant power to the opposition. This is the scenario the opposition fears most. The lurch toward full-fledged chaos only continues.

By Seong Han-yong, political correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]