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Population projections for 2015-2065. Data: Statistics Korea report “Future Population Estimates

South Korean elderly people are poised to outnumber children as of next year. The productive population is in decline. Studies have estimated the low birth rate will result in the number of students from kindergarten to university will fall by around 20% over the next ten years. It’s a change in demographic structure that is likely to have substantial effects across South Korean society.

2015-2065”

Statistics Korea reported these findings in its “Future Population Estimates, 2015-2016” report released on Dec. 8. Published once every five years, the estimates are an indicator to forecast the future population in light of factors that affect it, including births, deaths, and migration. They are an essential reference when estimating future pension fund and government finances or the potential economic growth rate, and a basis for forming economic, demographic, and fiscal policy.

According to the estimates, the productive population aged 15-64 is set to peak this year at 37.63 million and begin declining as of 2017. By 2020, when the baby boom generation born between 1955 and 1963 become senior citizens, the productive population is set to fall by an average of 340,000 each year; by 2030, the decline is predicted to be 440,000 a year.

Student population (6-21) projection

As of next year, the senior citizen population aged 65 and older will outnumber children aged 14 and under. The elderly population is expected to rise by 320,000 from this year to 7.08 million, while the number of children is predicted to fall by 110,000 to 6.76 million over the same period. As the senior population continues climbing sharply, South Korea is expected to become an aged society (14% or more of the population aged 65 and older) by 2018 and a hyper-aged society (20% or more) by 2025 - a year ahead of schedule from an estimate made five years ago.

The decline in the child population is also predicted to impact the school-age population, which is expected to fall from 8.92 million in 2015 to 7.08 million by 2025, and under 6 million by 2050.

“One of the big findings in these estimates is the large decline in the school-age population within ten years,” said Statistics Korea population trend bureau chief Lee Ji-yeon, adding that the drop is “about 160,000 larger than in the estimates made five years ago.”

By Kim Kyung-rok and Kim So-youn, staff reporters

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