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Changes in elderly populaion

The unprecedented pace of South Korea’s aging population trend means the productive population aged 15-64 - seen as the key driving force for economic activity - will enter a decline as of next year. It is poised to begin falling by an average of 340,000 a year when the baby boom generation (born between 1955-1963) hits senior citizen age as of 2020, and 440,000 a year by the 2030s. This means a heavier burden of support for the rest of South Korean society, a fact that has some stressing the need for effective, long-term measures - if only for the sake of sustainable management of the state.

Figures in the Statistics Korea report “Future Population Estimates, 2015-2065” published on Dec. 8 predicted South Korea would officially become an aged society as the population of people 65 and over passes 14% by 2018 - up from 12.8% in 2015. By 2025, it is set to become a hyper-aged society as the population soars to 20%; by 2065, the percentage is expected to reach 42.5%. The median age - or the age of the centermost person if the entire population were lined up according to age - is predicted to rise from 40.9 in 2015 to pass fifty at 51.2 in 2035 and approach sixty at 58.7 in 2065.

A tremendously fast pace has been a characteristic of South Korea’s aging population trend. Once it becomes a hyper-aged society as of 2025, it will have been just 25 years since it first became an aging society in 2000. For advanced economies like the US and France, the process is projected to take 70 years or more. As of 2015, South Korea had a lower rate of seniors in its population than other OECD members with 12.8%; by 2065, it will be the highest at 42.5%.

Life expectancies have also grown from five years ago. At the time of the 2011 announcement, the predicted life expectancies for 2015 were 78.2 for men and 85 for women; the actual numbers were slightly higher at 79 and 85.2, respectively. Longer lifespans mean a bigger burden in terms of national pension payouts and health insurance. Social insurance finances are rickety even now. In its “Long-Term Financial Prospects 2060” report last year, the South Korean government predicted the health insurance cumulative balance would fall into the red by 2025 and national pension funds would run out by 2060 if social insurance continues under its current system.

An even bigger problem is the low birth rate. The total fertility rate has fallen steadily from 4.53 in 1970, lingering at the “super-low birth rate” level of 1.3 or less between 2001 and 2015. It‘s a situation that leaves the birth rate even lower than was projected five years ago. In its future population predictions from 2011, Statistics Korea projected a 2015 birth rate of 1.28; the actual rate was 0.4 lower at 1.24. The numbers suggest the tens of trillions of won the South Korean government has spent to combat the low birth rate are not paying off.

The decline in the productive population potentially means a great burden for South Koreans. The dependency ratio, or the number of children and seniors supported by each 100 members of the production population, is poised to rise from 36.2 in 2015 to 66.8 in 2035 and 94.2 in 2055 before reaching 100 in 2059. It means the arrival of a new era: a one-to-one correspondence between the productive population and the number of seniors or children they have to support. The 2015 dependency ratio of 36.2 was still the lowest among OECD member countries, but it is predicted to be the highest by 2065 at 108.7.

Meanwhile, a natural population decline is also expected to set in. As of 2029, the population will begin declining naturally as the number of projected deaths (413,000) outnumbers births (412,000). One dismal prediction suggested that a hundred years from now in 2115, South Korea’s population could fall as low as 25.82 million - half its level last year.

“Over the 33 years from 2032 to 2065, there will be a natural decline of around 10 million people,” said Statistics Korea population trend bureau chief Lee Ji-yeon. “Some short-term additions could happen through migration and migrant labor, but in the long term it won‘t be enough.”

“The only way to solve the population problem is to solve the low birth rate problem,” Lee added. “We need ongoing, effective low birth rate measures.”

By Kim So-youn, staff reporter

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