hankyoreh

A poll shows Moon Jae-in, former leader of the opposition Minjoo Party and the party‘s likely candidate for the next presidential election, with a lead that exceeds the margin of error not only in a two-way race with former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon but also in a three-way race including former People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo. When Moon faced off against Ban in a poll that Research Plus carried out on behalf of the Hankyoreh from Dec. 28 to Dec. 29 on 1,006 adults around South Korea, Moon had a comfortable lead of 51.8% over Ban, with 35.9%. Moon remained in first even in a three-way race with Ahn, with 44.6% of support compared to 30% for Ban and 13.7% for Ahn. Moon was still on top in a full lineup including all the leading presidential candidates from the various parties, receiving 27.4% of support and coming in 9.1 percentage points ahead of Ban, at 18.3%.

Moon had the advantage among progressive and moderate voters (45.5% among progressives, 30.2% among moderates), among supporters of the Minjoo Party (56%) and among voters who were below 50 years of age (37.2% among people between 19 and 29 years old, 38.7% among people in their 30s and 34.1% among people in their 40s). He also had the lead over Ban, the second-most popular candidate, in every region of the country except for Daejeon and Chungcheong Province, Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, Gangwon Province and Jeju Island.

In contrast, Ban, who is regarded as the pan-conservative candidate, led among conservatives (39.9%) and among people 60 and older (38%). The regions where Ban enjoyed an advantage over Moon were Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province (26.7%) and Daejeon and Chungcheong (27.4%), the region of his birth. While it is still unclear which party Ban will represent in the election, the poll shows that he is favored by a majority of conservative voters. When asked who they preferred among a full spread of candidates, 39.9% of respondents who backed President Park Geun-hye in the 2012 election voiced their support for Ban.

Seongnam mayor Lee Jae-myung maintained a two-digit rating of 12% in this poll, trailing Ban, who came in third. Lee‘s support surged during the candlelight rallies but has sputtered in recent weeks. He had higher than average support among moderates (15.1%), people 50 and younger (16.5% among people between 19 and 29 years old, 18.6% among people in their 30s and 16.7% among people in their 40s) and in Incheon and Gyeonggi Province (18%). In a three-way race among Lee Jae-myung, Ban Ki-moon and Ahn Cheol-soo (assuming that Lee defeats Moon in the Minjoo Party primary), Lee (33.4%) had a slight edge over Ban (33.2%), while Ahn received 18.9% of the vote. In a head-to-head race against Ban, Lee led, though within the margin of error, at 43.3% to 41%. Lee was also well ahead of Ahn (33.4%) in a hypothetical head-to-head showdown, with 43.3% of respondents supporting him.

Compared with the strong showing by the Minjoo Party frontrunners, Ahn has been struggling. In a contest among all the candidates, Ahn received only 5.7% of support, less than half of Lee Jae-myung, who was in third place. This appears to have been caused by his failure to regroup after Lee Jae-myung emerged as the biggest winner in Ahn’s rivalry with the Minjoo Party frontrunners over who could align themselves most clearly with the candlelight rallies. Ahn was unable to reach double-digit support in any age group, area, or ideological leaning.

Ahn‘s poor performance has resulted in the Minjoo Party candidate (whoever that may be) taking first place in a three-party match with Ahn on the ballot. Particularly interesting is the three-way race among Moon, Ban and Ahn: Ahn (13.7%) received one-third of Moon’s support (44.6%) and just half of Ban‘s support (30%). This implies that Ahn’s presence might not even be significant enough for him to serve as kingmaker. When Lee Jae-myung is assumed to be the Minjoo Party candidate, his lead (33.4%) is closely contested by Ban (33.2%), while Ahn remains a distant third with just 18.9% of the vote.

“Since the candlelight rallies, overall support trends have been unstable. Considering that Moon’s fixed base of support is around 25%, support levels could fluctuate at any time after Ban returns to South Korea, and during the primaries,” said Lim Sang-ryeol, CEO of Research Plus, when asked about Lee’s strong showing overall in the results of the virtual matches. Lim acknowledged that Moon is performing well at the moment but warned that it’s still too soon to declare him the inevitable candidate for the Minjoo Party.

By Lee Se-young, staff reporter

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