hankyoreh

Dec. 17. (Yonhap News)

Moon Jae-in is enjoying a definite upswing as a leading contender for the Minjoo Party presidential nomination. New Year’s opinion polls by news outlets on Jan. 1 and 2 showed the former party leader with a solid advantage not only among multiple candidates, but also in hypothetical two-way and three-way races.

The latest polls showed support for Moon in a multiple-candidate scenario in the 25-29% range, up from the 20-25% range as recently as mid-December. Some surveys put his support at over 30%.

Public opinion polls on possible presidential candidates

Moon’s advantage becomes even clearer in two- and three-way race scenarios. A poll commissioned by the Hankyoreh on Dec. 28-29 showed him garnering 51.8% in a two-way battle - well beyond the margin of error to defeat Ban, who drew only 35.9%. Moon also won 44.6% in a virtual three-way race with former People‘s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo, coming in well ahead of Ban’s second-place finish at 30%. Polls by the Chosun Ilbo, Joong-Ang Ilbo, and Kyunghyang Shinmun newspapers similarly showed him with a solid lead in both two- and three-way scenarios.

Moon‘s camp has expressed confidence, calling it “only a matter of time” before his support in a multiple-candidate scenario breaks 30%. Has he finally achieved unstoppable momentum? Experts are mixed in their assessment.

“It’s tremendous for an opposition presidential hopeful to have over 20% support in a field with seven to eight people,” said Park Sung-min, president of Min Consulting - suggesting Moon is likely to break 30% once the primary situation draws into clearer focus.

Myongji University professor Kim Hyung-joon said Moon’s “biggest advantage is that pro-Roh Moo-hyun [president from 2003-2008] and pro-Moon voters make up 25% [of all voters].”

“With that kind of a support base, it’s going to be tough for anyone to beat him in the party primary,” Kim concluded.

Agenda Center president Lee Sang-il offered a more cautious analysis. “This is a temporary trend that is the result of a relative slump for other opposition contenders amid growing desires for a new [non-Saenuri Party] administration,” Lee said. The argument is that too much political uncertainty remains to describe Moon as a lock.

Real Meter president Lee Taek-su shared the assessment. “Moon’s rise has emerged as an effect of growing antipathy with the forces in power amid the impeachment and the special prosecutors’ investigation [of the Park Geun-hye/Choi Sun-sil scandal],” Lee said.

“Once the party primary enters full swing and there’s a concerted checking effort by later-starting hopefuls, Moon Jae-in’s support is likely to remain stuck at its current level or drop,” he predicted.

While the experts differ in their forecasts, confidence in Moon’s advantage is gaining traction within the Minjoo Party.

“He’s going to start facing scrutiny on foreign affairs and national security going ahead, but for now the ruling and opposition parties can‘t even get their own camps in hand, let alone wage a scrutiny campaign,” said a longstanding lawmaker from the party’s non-mainstream wing in the greater Seoul area.

A key official in the Minjoo Party’s mainstream agreed, saying, “There isn’t that much time before the election for his rivals to come up with something.”

“Time is on Moon Jae-in’s side,” the official concluded.

Yet many also warn that if Moon becomes too complacent amid the predictions of a march to victory, the result could be a replay of the 2002 situation when Lee In-je and Lee Hoi-chang were seen as heavy favorites on the ruling and opposition sides - only to lose the nominations in the end.

“We can expect people to really start closing ranks against Moon Jae-in this month. If he wants to get through that onslaught, he’s going to need to shed his current ‘establishment’ image,” said Park Sung-min.

Former Minjoo Party leader Moon Jae-in during the sixth public demonstration in Ulsan

Lee Sang-il agreed, saying Moon was “likely to have trouble building trust outside his fixed support base if he continues giving the appearance of dodging sensitive and potentially disadvantageous issues like amendment of the Constitution, a runoff system, and shorter terms, rather than stating his position and winning people over.”

Kim Hyung-joon suggested Moon should get to work on changing his group of associates and advisers and broaden his base.

“The hard-line group of associates he has around him right now is getting in the way of him reaching more people,” Kim said.

Experts were unanimous in predicting the key toward widening Moon‘s advantage will be how things progress toward late January’s Lunar New Year holiday, which is seen as likely to be a second watershed in popular sentiments. The prediction is based on a number of various Moon will have to deal with in the meantime, including Ban’s return to South Korea, the Minjoo Party battle on primary rules, and opposition alliances against him.

By Lee Se-young, staff reporter

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