hankyoreh

Support for presidential candidates

In a public opinion poll carried out by the Hankyoreh and Research Plus over two days, since Feb. 3, Prime Minister and acting president Hwang Kyo-ahn came in third at 12.5%, after former Minjoo Party leader Moon Jae-in (30.2%) and South Chungcheong Province Governor Ahn Hee-jung (14.1%). Another conservative candidate, Righteous Party lawmaker Yoo Seong-min, only received 4.3% of support. Since former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s withdrawal from the race, Hwang seems to be emerging as the leading choice for the conservative establishment.

Hwang performed well in the conservative strongholds of Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province and in the age group of 60s and above. He was the most popular choice in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, with 23.7% support, and he also received the most support from people in their sixties and older, at 29.9%. Furthermore, the poll found Hwang was the overwhelming choice of Saenuri Party supporters, at 61.4%, even though he is not a member of the party. This can be taken to mean that Hwang has completely inherited the support of those who are staunchly loyal to President Park Geun-hye despite her impeachment trial. By absorbing the conservatives who are leading the public demonstrations against the impeachment, Hwang is basically solidifying his position as the clear heir to hardline conservatives.

Even in polls that presume a single conservative candidate, Hwang was a somewhat more popular choice than Yoo. Hypothetical three-way races with Moon Jae-in, Ahn Cheol-soo and a single conservative candidate had the following outcomes: Moon (48.3%), Hwang (20.5%) and Ahn (17.8%); Moon (46.9%), Ahn (19.1%) and Yoo (16.3%). When respondents were asked whether they would never stop supporting their current choice, 80% of Hwang’s supporters said so, showing that Hwang‘s supporters are more loyal than those of other candidates, including Moon (70.1%), Ahn Hee-jung (62.2%) and Ahn Cheol-soo (57.5%).

But this poll also confirms that Hwang has failed to fully absorb the moderate conservatives who were driven away by the Choi Sun-sil influence-peddling scandal. Among supporters of the Righteous Party, who can be seen as moderate conservatives, Hwang received less support (18.4%) than Yoo (29%) or Ahn (20.8%). In a question about a second choice that asked respondents who they would support if their preferred candidate was eliminated from the primaries, Hwang was the choice of 1.7% of respondents, which was just eighth among the 11 candidates in the survey. This shows that it will not be easy for Hwang to expand his support base even if he does run for president. His lack of broad-based appeal was also shown by the fact that just 52.2% of people who identify themselves as ideological conservatives voiced support for Hwang.

By Seok Jin-hwan, staff reporter 　

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