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Former Minjoo Party leader Moon Jae-in officially announced his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election on Mar. 24. Moon did not hold an event for the announcement

On Mar. 24, when former Minjoo Party leader Moon Jae-in formally announced he was running for president, Gallup Korea released the results of a poll showing support for the official presidential candidates. Moon had 31%, Ahn Hee-jung 17%, Ahn Cheol-soo 10%, Lee Jae-myung 8% and Hong Joon-pyo 6%.

From the second week of January, when Moon surpassed former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to reach the 30% range, until now, Moon has steadily polled above 30%, while his competitors remain in the 10% range. A poll that Gallup Korea released on Oct. 19, 2012, two months before the presidential election in Dec. 2012, showed Park Geun-hye with 36% of support, Ahn Cheol-soo with 27% and Moon Jae-in with 20%. Given current trends, it would be sensible to assume that Moon will be elected president.

The mood is similar in the Minjoo Party primaries. It’s widely assumed in the party that Moon will enjoy an overwhelming victory in the Honam (in the southwest) primary on Mar. 27. Not only is Moon well organized, but Honam voters’ aversion for him has largely dissipated. A virtuous cycle is at work for Moon: his high approval rating in the cross-party polls are giving him an advantage in the party primaries, especially in Honam, and the expectation that he will dominate the party primaries is boosting his ratings in the cross-party polls.

But there’s nothing easy about becoming president. Back in 2012, Saenuri Party (now called the Liberty Korea Party) supporters who were asked about Park Geun-hye said they were worried not just that she might lose but also that she might win. Recently, many Minjoo Party supporters who are asked about Moon have said they’re pretty sure he’ll win the election, but that they’re not so sure whether he’ll be very good at running the country.

Uncertainty about Moon’s ability to run the government is where his rivals in the party and other parties are focusing their attack. Inside the party, Moon is mostly being criticized for his weak leadership, for neglecting to address “hegemony” inside the party and for his indiscriminate recruitment of members of the establishment. Candidates from the Liberty Korea Party and the Bareun Party are stoking fears about foreign policy and security, including the possibility of damaging relations with the US. It’s true that political acumen will be necessary to overcome the extremely unfavorable external environment, including the lack of a transitional committee at the beginning of the presidency and the ruling party’s lack of a majority in the National Assembly.

But “rather than defending and addressing each one of those weaknesses,” members of Moon’s campaign say, “we’re going to emphasize the fact that Moon Jae-in is the person who is best suited for realizing the public desire for reform expressed in the candlelight rallies.” In other words, the best defense is a good offense.

“Moon Jae-in is the presidential candidate who best understands the historical significance of having to assume the mantle of former presidents Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) and Roh Moo-hyun (2003-2008). If he recruits advisors who are capable of leading reform in the areas of economic policy and Korean peninsula policy, his chances of winning the election will increase, and he’ll be effective at running the country,” said a senior politician in the Minjoo Party.

Not all the obstacles on the road to the presidency are so large. Candidates who are racing down that road can be tripped up by a single jagged stone. During a floor strategy meeting by the Bareun Party on Mar. 24, lawmaker Ha Tae-gyeong once again raised allegations that Moon’s son received preferential treatment when he was hired by the Korea Employment Information Service. Ha called for the National Assembly to hold a hearing, arguing that the Ministry of Employment and Labor was covering up the results of an audit of the Korea Employment Information Service because of Moon. This is a sensitive issue, given the difficulties faced by young people looking for jobs today. Rather than completely ignoring these allegations out of the concern that they will be overblown, it seems that Moon should provide an appropriate explanation.

By Sung Han-yong, political correspondent

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