Latest polls show Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo in a dead heat for presidency

Posted on : 2017-04-10 16:50 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Ahn gaining support as conservative voters throw their support behind him, instead of trailing conservative candidates
 in Mokdo
in Mokdo

On Apr. 9, with just 30 days to go before South Korea’s 19th presidential election, Minjoo Party candidate Moon Jae-in and People’s Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo are running neck and neck, both polling at 37.7%, in a hypothetical race between candidates from five parties.

This was the result of a poll conducted by Research Plus on 1,023 adults from around the country between Apr. 7 and 8, commissioned by the Hankyoreh and the Hankyoreh Economy and Society Research Institute (HERI). The poll had a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, a 95% confidence level, and a 21.4% response rate.

When the poll asked respondents which of the six candidates (the five major party candidates and former lawmaker Kim Jong-in, who is running as an independent) they supported, Moon and Ahn received the same amount of support, at 37.7%. Liberty Korea Party candidate Hong Joon-pyo had 6.6% support, Bareun Party candidate Yoo Seong-min 2.1% and Justice Party candidate Shim Sang-jung 2%, which Kim Jong-in trailing at 0.4%. 6.7% of respondents did not support any of the candidates, and 6.8% were not sure or declined to answer.

People’s Party presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo ties a commemorative yellow ribbon near the Sewol ferry
People’s Party presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo ties a commemorative yellow ribbon near the Sewol ferry

While Ahn’s increasing support has been reflected in polls by several organizations, this was the first time for Moon and Ahn to finish in a dead heat in a five-way or six-way poll. Compared to a poll by the Hankyoreh and Research Plus conducted on Mar. 17 and 18, Moon’s support has dropped by 1.4 points while Ahn’s has climbed by 20.2 points. In the previous poll, just 18.4% of respondents who said they had voted for Saenuri Party (now called the Liberty Korea Party) candidate Park Geun-hye in the 2012 presidential election supported Ahn, but that number jumped to 51.9% in this poll. This trend is thought to indicate that conservative voters who are unimpressed with the candidates of the conservative parties - Hong and Yoo - and who have nowhere else to go are shifting their allegiance to Ahn, whom they regard as the conservative alternative.

Support for presidential candidates
Support for presidential candidates

The Hankyoreh’s poll also showed that, in a hypothetical race in which Yoo and Hong threw their support behind Ahn, Ahn came out ahead of Moon.

In a hypothetical four-way race in which Yoo endorses Hong‘s candidacy, the poll placed Ahn (37.4%) in the lead over Moon (35.8%), within the margin of error. Hong only received 10.5% of the vote in that race, while Shim got just 2.6%.

In a four-way hypothetical race in which Yoo throws his support behind Ahn, Ahn’s (42.3%) lead over Moon (37.2%) became even greater. In that scenario, Hong took 7.9% and Shim 2.5%. In a three-way race in which Ahn is backed by both Hong and Yoo, Ahn got 47.4% of the vote, followed by Moon at 38.5% and Shim at 2.7%.

Even in a hypothetical duel between Moon and Ahn in which Moon is endorsed by Shim while Ahn is endorsed by Hong and Yoo, Ahn (48.2%) had a 6.4 point advantage over Moon (41.8%).

“On top of the ‘convention effect’ [the boost in support after a candidate‘s confirmation], Ahn Cheol-soo has picked up supporters of South Chungcheong Governor Ahn Hee-jung and moderates and conservatives, including supporters of the [conservative] Liberty Korea Party and the Bareun Party. Supporters of Park Geun-hye during the 2012 election also seem to be gathering around Ahn. This is effectively shaping up to be a showdown between Moon Jae-in as the progressive candidate and Ahn Cheol-soo as the conservative candidate,” said Han Gwi-yeong, head of HERI’s Social Investigation Center.

By Hwang Joon-bum, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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