hankyoreh

Hypothetical races for the presidency

Results released on Apr. 9 from an Apr. 7-8 opinion poll by the Hankyoreh and Research Plus showed Minjoo Party candidate Moon Jae-in and People’s Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo tied at 37.7% in a hypothetical five-way race for the presidency.

But the findings also showed voters flocking more and more to Ahn in two-, three-, and four-way races with one or more candidates pulling out to avoid splitting the vote.

For conservative candidates Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party and Yoo Seong-min of the Bareun Party, the findings showed only limited boosts if one of them pulls out. When asked who they would back in a four-way race scenario with the Liberty Korea Party and Bareun Party uniting behind Hong as a candidate, 37.4% of voters named Ahn, putting him ahead of Moon‘s 35.8%, within the margin of error. In this scenario, Hong’s support rose to 10.5%, which was ahead of the combined total of his 6.6% and Yoo‘s 2.1% in the five-way race - but not enough to change the election landscape. Results for a scenario where the two conservative parties united behind Yoo were 39.7% for Ahn, 36.7% for Moon, 7.9% for Yoo, and 2.6% for left-wing Justice Party candidate Shim Sang-jung.

The reason Hong and Yoo benefited so little from unifying effects appears to stem from irreconcilable differences between their supporters, which have only grown amid their intense conflict and antagonism over former President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment, reckoning with the legacy of the “pro-Park” camp, and issues of conservative identity. Indeed, Yoo‘s support base was found to fragment among Hong (30.2%), Ahn (29.8%), and Moon (16.5%) in a scenario where he pulled out to leave Hong as the sole conservative candidate.

In a scenario where Hong pulled out to leave Yoo as the conservative candidate, more of his supporters migrated to Ahn (40.0%) than Yoo (20.5%).

In contrast with the conservatives, candidate consolidation effects for moderates and conservatives backing Ahn were much stronger. When asked who they would support if the People’s Party and Bareun Party consolidated behind Ahn as a candidate, 42.3% of respondents chose Ahn in a four-way race, giving him a 5.1 percentage point lead over Moon’s 37.2%.

Ahn’s lead opened up to 8.9 percentage points, with 47.4% support to Moon’s 38.5%, in a hypothetical three-way race where both the Liberty Korea Party and Bareun Party candidates dropped out. The findings clearly showed Ahn’s standing as a conservative candidate, with 73.1% of respondents who reported voting for Park in the 2012 election choosing Ahn in the three-way race scenario. Among respondents who reported voting for Moon in 2012, 65.2% supported him again in the latest poll, while 25.3% backed Ahn.

When asked who they would support if Moon ran as a unified candidate for Minjoo Party and Justice Party candidate and Ahn ran as a unified candidate for Liberty Korea, People‘s and Bareun Party candidate in a two-way race, respondents chose Ahn over Moon by a 48.2% to 41.8% margin.

By Yoon Hyeong-joong, staff reporter

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