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Support ratings for major presidential candidates. Data: Gallup Korea

The two-way race between liberal Moon Jae-in and moderate Ahn Cheol-soo has recently given way to a field in which Moon is in the lead, with Ahn trailing and the other three major candidates far behind. This shift shows how progressive candidates are gaining support while the conservative vote is fracturing. The strong showing of left wing Justice Party candidate Shim Sang-jung in the televised debates has grown the pie for progressive candidates, with Shim picking up not only progressive voters but also moderates.

In a poll by Gallup Korea for the fourth week of April, which was carried out between Apr. 25 and 27 and released on Apr. 28, Moon Jae-in was down one percentage point from the previous week to 40%, while Ahn Cheol-soo had dropped six points to 24% – widening the gap between the two candidates from 11 to 16 points. In the Gallup poll, conservative Liberty Korea Party candidate Hong Joon-pyo had the support of 12% of respondents, the first time he had passed 10%, while Shim was at 7%, her highest showing, and conservative Bareun Party candidate Yoo Seong-min was at 4%. Hong and Shim were both up three points and Yoo up one point from the previous week.

While Moon was down one point from the week before, Shim’s rating rose by three points, showing that the support base for progressive candidates is growing overall. Shim’s standing improved among respondents who identified themselves as progressives (5% in the second week of April, 6% in the third week, and 13% in the fourth week), while she also enjoyed a modest gain among moderates (4%, 4%, 6%) and conservatives (1%, 1%, 3%).

At the same time, the conservative vote is being split between Ahn Cheol-soo, Hong Joon-pyo and Yoo Seong-min. Conservative voters’ defection from Ahn was especially noticeable. Ahn’s support has fallen 19 points over the past three weeks (48%, 45%, 29%) among self-identified conservatives – a larger decline than among moderates (40%, 34%, 30%) and progressives (23%, 19%, 16%). Over the same period, Hong’s support has increased among conservatives (21%, 20%, 36%).

“Conservatives who had been supporting Ahn Cheol-soo conditionally, with the hope of keeping Moon Jae-in from being elected, have been flocking to Hong Joon-pyo since the gap between Moon and Ahn widened,” said Yun Hee-woong, director of the Opinion Live Public Opinion Analysis Center. “Thanks to her distinguished performance in the televised debates, Shim Sang-jung has been attracting not only progressive voters but also moderates who are fed up with establishment politics.”

The poll, which was carried out on 1,006 adults around the country, had a reliability of 95% with a ±3.1 margin of error.

By Lee Seong-jun, staff reporter