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Moon Jae-in enters his presidential swearing in ceremony

One of the challenges awaiting the administration of South Korea’s new president Moon Jae-in, who took office on May 10, is the country’s isolation in diplomacy and security. During the administrations of Lee Myung-bak (2008-13) and Park Geun-hye (2013-2016), inter-Korean relations were completely severed and North Korea significantly improved its nuclear and missile capabilities. The South Korea-US alliance, which is the linchpin of South Korea’s diplomacy, has come under scrutiny since the inauguration of President Donald Trump in connection with the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system and the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). South Korea’s relations with China have chilled over THAAD, while its relations with Japan have soured because of the comfort women agreement and comfort women statues, and it won’t be easy to repair relations with either of those countries. Moon is taking office in a diplomacy and security environment that‘s harsher than any president before him, and he must address these issues immediately.

“I will create the conditions for relaxing tensions on the Korean Peninsula by establishing peace in Northeast Asia,” Moon said during his inaugural address on May 10. During the presidential campaign, he also announced a “bold plan for denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula,” according to which South Korea would resolve the diplomacy and security crisis by taking the initiative for North Korea’s denuclearization. Whereas the Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye administrations argued that North Korea must make the first move, Moon’s plan is based on the principle of “simultaneous action,” in which North Korea, the US and other related countries take gradual steps. Moon’s remarks on May 10 that “If necessary, I will fly straight to Washington. I will go to Beijing and Tokyo and, if the conditions are right, to Pyongyang as well” appear to indicate that he will personally oversee this process.

The problem is the difficulty of engaging in deliberations with North Korea, since all relations have been severed with it, and with the Trump administration, because of the high risk of hasty action. “The key to the new administration’s diplomacy and security is whether it can juggle relations with North Korea and with the US, and if so, how,” said Moon Chung-in, professor emeritus at Yonsei University.

“The reason the diplomatic approaches of the Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye administrations failed was because they placed the US alliance at the very top and subordinated relations with North Korea and with China below that. That limited the scope of their thought and action. This problem must be addressed by focusing on improving inter-Korean relations,” Moon suggested.

The argument that South Korea should break out of its current diplomacy and security crisis by using improved inter-Korean relations as leverage also reflects concerns that South Korea is being ignored by its neighbors - dubbed “Korea passing” in the local media - since the summit between the US and China last month. Such concerns were provoked by the US and China’s apparent exploitation of the power vacuum left by the impeachment of former president Park Geun-hye to take the initiative on the Korean Peninsula. “The leaders of South Korea’s neighbors - Trump, Xi Jinping, Abe and Putin - are all strongmen. In order to combat the powerful nationalism that they are projecting overseas, we must be active peacemakers. In order to create some diplomatic leverage, which is completely lacking at present, we need to improve inter-Korean relations,” said Kim Jun-hyeong, a professor at Handong Global University.

Others argue that finding a solution to the North Korean nuclear issue requires placing the focus on cooperation with the international community. They hold that the current pressure and sanctions on North Korea must be maintained in order to persuade Pyongyang to denuclearize. “If we spend too much time thinking about inter-Korean relations while the US and China are increasing their cooperation on the North Korean nuclear issue, we could disrupt international cooperation,” warned Kim Heung-gyu, director of Ajou University’s China Policy Institute.

North Korea has been under tough sanctions and pressure from the international community since it carried out its fifth nuclear test last year. Even if South Korea tries to improve relations with the North, it faces the challenge of devising a plan that does not violate UN Security Council sanctions. “The Moon Jae-in administration needs to lay the cornerstone for resolving the Korean Peninsula issue by simultaneously initiating inter-Korean dialogue, dialogue between Pyongyang and Washington and the Six-Party Talks,” said Kim Jong-dae, a lawmaker who is in charge of diplomacy and security policy for the Justice Party.

Communication with the Trump administration is critical for tackling not only the North Korean nuclear issue but also THAAD and the KORUS FTA, which have recently become hot topics. But this isn’t expected to be easy either because US-ROK relations will probably be readjusted by the Trump risk and because Moon has yet to prepare his “countermeasures.” “Negotiations with the Trump administration need to be intense and highly calculated. Just as Trump’s attack ties together THAAD, defense cost-sharing and the FTA, we need to come up with a plan for what we‘re going to tie together in our diplomatic package,” said Kim Jun-hyeong.

When it comes to China, South Korea needs to resolve the THAAD issue. “THAAD appears to have become a somewhat less sensitive issue for the US and China, and China hopes to improve relations with South Korea in order to minimize variables in Northeast Asia,” said Kim Heung-gyu. But since China isn’t back down on its overt opposition to THAAD, Seoul needs to come up with an exit strategy that will help both the US and China save face. The Moon administration, which has promised to renegotiate the comfort women agreement, will also have to find a point of compromise with the Japanese government, which is dead set against any renegotiation.

On top of all of this, if the Moon administration attempts to improve relations with North Korea and to pursue a foreign policy that balances the US and China (the approach that Moon has proposed for overcoming the crisis on the Korean Peninsula), there will almost certainly be a backlash from South Korea‘s conservatives. Peace Network president Jeong Wook-sik said that Moon must “ask for bipartisan cooperation,” while Kim Jun-hyeong said, “Since Moon became president thanks to the power of the candlelight rallies, he will need to secure support from the public through trusting them and communicating with them candidly.”

By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

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