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Preisdent Moon Jae-in presides over a meeting of the National Security Council at the Blue House National Crisis Management Center on Sept. 3 (provided by Blue House)

North Korea’s repeated provocations are shaking the Moon Jae-in’s “peace equals public welfare” foreign policy and national security approach to the core. The administration’s surprise THAAD system deployment is stirring up a backlash even among the traditional supporter base of Moon’s Minjoo Party.

Commenting on the completion of the “temporary” THAAD deployment, Moon said on the evening of Sept. 8 that he had “judged it the optimal measure the administration could take in the current situation” and asked for “the public’s understanding.”

Moon raised questions over THAAD’s efficacy repeatedly during his presidential campaign, and stressed the importance of its procedural legitimacy after taking office, pledging there would be “no deployment of THAAD without the public’s consent.”

But soon after the July 29 second test launch of a North Korean ICBM-level Hwasong-14 rocket, Moon suddenly ordered the temporary deployment of additional launchers, which was carried out early in the morning on Sept. 7 while he was touring overseas.

“I think it’s best to view [the deployment] as having taken place in the interests of pressure and coordination in terms of the South Korea-US alliance relationship,” said a senior Blue House source. It was basically an admission that the Moon administration’s policy approach had been altered by intense US pressure for the THAAD deployment. Moon, for his part, offered no persuasive explanation, stressing only that the deployment was the “best possible measure.”

A South Korea-Russia summit on Sept. 6 offered a symbolic glimpse at the administration’s foreign affairs and national security policy struggles. During the meeting, Moon asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for Moscow’s cooperation on an embargo of North Korean crude oil supplies. Putin fired back that the two sides “should not get caught up in emotions and push North Korea into a blind alley” – essentially admonishing Moon to his face.

Minister of National Defense Song Young-moo’s unexpected remarks about a redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons also rattled the administration’s policy focus. Speaking before the National Assembly National Defense Committee on Sept. 4, Song said Seoul “definitely needs to change things in terms of the North Korean nuclear [program].”

“We need to consider [redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons] as one way of doing that,” he suggested.

Redeploying tactical nuclear weapons with US Forces Korea would take away Seoul’s justification in calling for the North’s denuclearization; instead, it would leave South and North facing off, each with their own nukes. The Blue House has offered an explanation only in generic terms, saying it had “never considered the idea at the administration level.”

Experts have identified three reasons that Seoul finds itself adrift now in national security policy. First, they see the administration, which took office amid a crisis, as resorting exclusively to seat-of-its-pants responses. Inheriting a foreign policy/national security situation on the brink of disaster from its predecessors, the Moon administration was faced from the get-go with North Korean provocations that left it barely able to cope with other issues. The increasing tensions have only underscored the lack of policy alternatives, leaving the administration – like its predecessors – unable to escape the vicious cycle of provocations and sanctions.

Second, observers see the administration as giving too much consideration to domestic politics when it should be basing its foreign affairs and national security policy on principles and a long-term vision. The deepening crisis since the administration took office has also posed growing demands in terms of domestic politics in terms of the need to show a powerful response to the North rooted in the South Korea-US alliance. It’s a policy consideration that is spurring defections from Moon’s traditional supporters. If the administration allows its policy approach to be shaken by short-term public opinion trends, it could find itself hampered by plunging approval ratings.

Third, the ongoing provocations from the North have shifted the policy approach from pressure and dialogue in tandem to pressure and sanctions exclusively. A foreign affairs and national security expert well acquainted with Blue House affairs bluntly declared, “The North Korean nuclear and missile crisis is not going to get resolved by deploying THAAD and cutting off the North’s crude oil supplies now.”

Another expert who was part of Moon’s election camp said, “We’re not going to find any solution as long as we keep firing back every time there’s a provocation from North Korea.”

“We need to look for a way to turn things around from a long-term perspective,” the expert suggested.

By Jung In-hwan and Kim Bo-hyeop, staff reporters

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