[News Analysis] North Korea declares completion of state nuclear force

Posted on : 2017-11-30 17:18 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
International community likely to focus on intensifying economic and diplomatic sanctions

After the launch of a long-range missile believed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on the early morning of Nov. 29, North Korea claimed that its “state nuclear force is complete.” The international community, including South Korea, the US and Japan, declared that they would continue the policy of “maximum pressure” by further intensifying their economic and diplomatic sanctions against the North. While a short-term heightening of tensions on the Korean Peninsula is probably unavoidable, after a cooling-off period has passed, the countries involved are also expected to come under increasing pressure from domestic politics to shift to a negotiating phase.

A statement released by the North Korean government during the day on Nov. 29 claimed that the missile, which it called a Hwasong-15, was launched from the outskirts of Pyongyang at 2:48 am on Nov. 29 [3:18 am in South Korea] and flew for 53 minutes, traveling for 950 km and reaching a maximum altitude of 4,475 km. US Pentagon spokesperson Robert Manning said that initial assessments indicated that the missile was an ICBM.

North Korea’s launch of the long-range missile came 75 days after it launched the Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on Sept. 15. By ending what was called a “period of restraint” with the bold gambit of launching an ICBM capable of striking the entire US mainland, the North appeared to be making clear that it means to break out of its deadlock with the US.

Latest missile test should not have come as a surprise

After US President Donald Trump visited Asia at the beginning of November and Song Tao, head of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC), visited North Korea as a special envoy for Chinese President Xi Jinping and failed to achieve a breakthrough, the possibility of North Korea raising tensions once again can be seen as having already been in the cards. After Song Tao failed to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the US re-designated North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism for the first time in nine years.

In coming weeks, there are expected to be convoluted developments on the Korean Peninsula, as the actions and calculations of North Korea and the US intersect with the mediating role of South Korea and China.

First, the North Korean government declared in its statement that “the historic achievement of completing the state nuclear force has become a reality.” Setting aside the degree of technological completion or the ability to deploy missiles for battle, this can be seen as a “political statement” marking the completion of the task described by Kim Jong-un in his New Year’s address, during which he said that “an ICBM that can reach the US mainland is in its final stage.” The statement also said that North Korea would “dedicate all of its efforts to bringing about the noble goal of defending the peace and stability of the world.”

Will North Korea shift toward dialogue?

“There is a considerable likelihood that North Korea will propose dialogue with the US while promising to do its duty in the international community as a nuclear power,” suggested Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University. Paradoxically, Koh said, North Korea is likely to use the completion of Kim’s “two-track course of nuclear and economic development” as an excuse to suspend additional provocations and to shift toward a peace offensive.

Even if North Korea seeks to transition to a negotiating phase, of course, it seems unlikely that the governments of South Korea and the US would immediately accept this. Trump stated in the White House the same day that he did not intend to change the US’s approach toward North Korea. This means that Trump will maintain his policy of “maximum pressure,” which is focused on economic and diplomatic sanctions and on shows of force. In a statement, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson also called on various countries to implement their own sanctions, such as by shutting down maritime transportation of goods moving into and out of North Korea.

In connection with economic sanctions, there is a substantial likelihood that the Trump administration will ask China to suspend or greatly reduce exports of crude oil and other oil products. Reportedly, Trump asked Xi to reduce oil exports during their summit in Beijing on Nov. 9, but Xi responded that he could not comply with such a request unless there was a “strategic provocation” such as a nuclear test or an ICBM launch.

US likely to increase pressure on China

With White House officials and experts increasingly feeling that Trump did not receive any concessions from China in regard to institutional or structural trade issues during his visit to China, there is a considerable push to turn the screws even tighter on China in regard to the North Korean issue.

“China is expected to cooperate to a certain extent, if only to prevent a conflict with the US,” said a diplomatic source in Washington, D.C.

Practically speaking, the gap between North Korean and American demands is probably too wide to bridge in the short term. While the Trump administration has not provided a clear and concrete explanation of its demands for North Korea, US Defense Secretary James Mattis has said that the three preconditions for dialogue are halting nuclear and missile tests, ending their development, and banning their export.

In contrast, North Korea has used “1.5 track” dialogue between its officials and American experts to indicate that denuclearization cannot be dealt with in negotiations, but that the agenda should instead include ending or reducing South Korea-US joint military drills, cancelling sanctions on North Korea and ending Trump’s provocative remarks. The most critical of these demands is ending or reducing the drills, according to an expert who attended the Moscow Nonproliferation Conference last month. For the time being, North Korean and US demands are irreconcilable.

But after both sides have had time to cool off, North Korea and the US could gain the political momentum to pursue a transition to the negotiating phase, beginning with “exploratory dialogue.” Early next year, the US will move into campaign mode in preparation for the midterm elections in November. Since the elections will effectively serve as an assessment of the first half of Trump’s presidency, high tensions on the Korean Peninsula leading up to the elections would be a liability for Trump.

Furthermore, the South Korean government is in a tricky situation since it must keep tensions in check before the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, taking place next February. And now that Xi has consolidated his authority, there is vigorous discussion in China about how to regain the initiative in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent and Jung In-hwan, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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