[News analysis] New conservative party or throwback to the Saenuri Party?

Posted on : 2020-02-18 18:11 KST Modified on : 2020-02-18 18:22 KST
Newly formed United Future Party hopes to unite conservatives and attract moderates
Hwang Kyo-ahn (center), leader of the newly formed United Future Party, poses for a photograph with fellow party members during the party’s launch ceremony at the National Assembly on Feb. 17. (photo pool)
Hwang Kyo-ahn (center), leader of the newly formed United Future Party, poses for a photograph with fellow party members during the party’s launch ceremony at the National Assembly on Feb. 17. (photo pool)

South Korea’s conservatives are regrouping. Just 58 days before the parliamentary elections, fractured factions of the conservative opposition have managed to reunite. Feb. 17 witnessed the launch of the United Future Party (UFP), which combines the Liberty Korea Party (LKP), the country’s main opposition party, with the smaller New Conservative Party (NCP) and Onward for Future 4.0. This reunification comes some three years after February 2017, when the Saenuri Party splintered after the impeachment of former president Park Geun-hye. The biggest question going into the elections is whether the conservatives’ belief that a house divided cannot stand will lead to genuine reform or simply a reprise of the Saenuri Party.

Reunited conservatives frame election as a referendum on the current administration

At 2 pm on Monday, the United Future Party held its launch party at the main conference hall at the National Assembly under the slogan “United before the people in 2020.” The merger gives the bloc 113 seats in the National Assembly — 105 from the LKP, seven from the NCP, and one from Onward for Future 4.0. That tally jumps to 118 when the five seats from the Future Korea Party, a satellite party designed to attract proportional votes, are thrown in. Hwang Kyo-ahn, head of the LKP, will remain in power at the UFP.

Yu Ui-dong, head of the NCP, and Lee Eon-ju, head of Onward for Future 4.0, both attended the launch. Jeju Province Governor Won Hee-ryong, who has been appointed to the party’s supreme council, also made an appearance. Yoo Seong-min, chair of the “conservative rebuilding committee” for the NCP, wasn’t in attendance, but he did have a cameo in a video introducing the new bloc.

“Despite concerns that we would just cause more division, we went ahead and achieved unification, defying everyone’s expectations,” said Hwang during a speech at the ceremony. At several points during his remarks, he stressed that the upcoming election should serve as a referendum on the current administration: “The goal of this merger is casting judgment on the tyranny of the Moon administration. We’re united in that mission and committed to achieving the fervent desires of the public.”

“Bigger appeal to the center”

UFP members seem determined to disregard criticism that the new bloc represents a return to the Saenuri Party (of Park Geun-hye). “The point is we’ve created a single destination for the votes of the many citizens who think this administration has got it wrong. This can be seen as enabling a strong check on the government based on the old two-party system,” said one lawmaker from the “TK” region, a conservative stronghold comprising Daegu and the surrounding North Gyeongsang Province.

Quite a few party members underline differences between the UFP and the Saenuri Party, including the fact that the merger makes it easier to shift toward the center-right. According to this argument, the party will have a bigger appeal to moderates, now that it has jettisoned the hard-right supporters of the impeached Park.

UFP members think that recent high-handed behavior by the ruling party will work in their favor. “Even at the local level, we can feel a change in the grassroots. It used to be that there was no point telling your kids in Seoul [not to vote for the Democratic Party], but now people are saying that their kids have made that decision on their own. The mood in the party is that we need to approach this situation with extreme caution, handling it as gingerly as you might a freshly laid egg,” said one member of the party’s supreme council.

The party thinks it can expand its reach by absorbing the Brand New Party and the two other conservative-leaning youth parties.

Next steps are critical, including handling discord in party nominations

Now that its framework is in place, the content of the party’s platform is the key factor that will determine its fate in the elections. “Direction is important, and there’s a sense that the party will move further to the center than it has before. Former supreme council member Kim Yeong-hwan and the moderate Brand New Party have signed up, giving [voters] reason to ponder why people are flocking to the conservatives,” said Yun Tae-gon, an analyst with the think tank Moa.

“In this atmosphere, if we tack to the center as the leadership did in the past with its agenda of ‘economic democratization,’ I don’t think we’ll have too much trouble with the greater Seoul area,” said a lawmaker serving the greater Seoul area, which is regarded as a tough nut for the conservatives to crack.

The party’s first challenge is likely to be minimizing friction over nominations, an inevitable part of the merger process. “Some of the people who were onboard with a conservative big tent and a referendum on the current administration could defect during bickering over nominations, which could deflate the big tent message,” said Jang Seong-cheol, director of the Center for Empathy and Policy Debate.

“But considering that Chairman Kim Hyeong-oh is sorting out questions including Hwang Kyo-ahn’s candidacy in Jongno, [former LKP leader] Hong Joon-pyo’s candidacy in his hometown, and lawmakers who won’t be running, I think the nomination issue can also be worked out without too much difficulty.”

By Jung Yu-gyung and Yi Ju-been, staff reporters

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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