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On Mar. 8, Seoul’s Gwanghwamun Square is relatively empty as people limit their exposure to crowds amid the novel coronavirus outbreak. (Kim Hye-yun, staff photographer)

The most serious emergency in the South Korean novel coronavirus outbreak appears to be controlling full-scale testing of members of the Shincheonji religious sect in the Daegu area -- which has been at the center of the contagion – as the outbreak enters its final stages. But optimistic predictions are appearing premature, with one case after another of small transmission clusters involving settings such as hospitals, clinics, and hobbyist gatherings.

According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), the total number of confirmed coronavirus patients stood at 7,382 as of Mar. 9, an increase of 248 from the previous day. Most of those newly diagnosed either were Shincheonji members or people who had been in contact with one. The death toll has risen to 51, while 166 people have been released from quarantine. In a regular briefing on Mar. 8, KCDC Director Jung Eun-kyeong said, “Testing of members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu is around 95% complete, and the number of [new] patients has been slowly decreasing as testing of the members enters its final stages.”

“Over the past week, the positive testing rate for Shincheonji members has been around 40% for Daegu and 9% for North Gyeongsang Province,” she explained.

The problem is the occurrence of infections involving small transmission clusters. Public authorities stated on Mar. 8 that 79.4% of coronavirus cases were the result of group infections -- cases where the virus spread through settings and encounters involving groups of people other than Shincheonji members.

Hospitals are considered to have the highest risk. The number of confirmed cases at Bundang Jesaeng Hospital in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, where five patients and medical staff were diagnosed with the virus on Mar. 5, increased over the course of the weekend to 14 as of Mar. 9. The newly diagnosed cases were found among the hospital’s medical staff and patients who had previously been hospitalized there. The number of diagnoses could grow further depending on the results of an epidemiological study that is currently performed by public health authorities and the city of Seongnam, with a focus on Bundang Jesaeng Hospital’s 81st ward. The sense of tension remains unabated, with the hospital having previously been designated by the government as a “citizen relief hospital” where respiratory and non-respiratory patient movements were kept separate to allow members of the public to undergo treatment without fear of infection.

In South Chungcheong and Gangwon Provinces, a spike in coronavirus diagnosis has been associated with Zumba dance classes. Since the first Zumba-related case emerged in Cheonan, South Chungcheong Province, on Feb. 25, others have been found in Asan, Sejong, and Gangneung, Gangwon Province, with the total number of confirmed cases approaching 100 as of Mar. 8.

According to the cities of Sejong and Gangneung, three patients receiving confirmed diagnoses that day were Zumba instructors and students. One of the Gangneung patients, a woman in her 20s identified by the initial “K,” had attended a workshop for Zumba instructors in Cheonan on Feb. 15. The workshop event was reportedly attended by 29 Zumba instructors for eight cities and provinces in South Korea, including three from Daegu. South Chungcheong Province announced that it had tested 18 of them, with six testing positive. One of the new Sejong patients was also a Zumba student who works as a violin instructor, raising the possibility of additional infections. Another was a government employee working for the Ministry of Health and Welfare; on Mar. 7, the government ordered self-quarantine measures for 27 people who had been in contact with the employee.

“We believe these kinds of small-scale transmission clusters can continue to happen at any time in cases of group facilities, religious events, and such where large numbers of people are exposed to an enclosed space,” Jung said.

“To prevent additional spreading, individual local governments must establish systems of organic cooperation with the corresponding facilities and organizations,” she urged.

By Park Jun-yong and Park Ki-yong, staff reporters

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