hankyoreh

Employees at work at the CCTV center of the Gwacheon branch of the National Election Commission in Gyeonggi Province, which compiles video footage of all the polling stations in the city. (Yonhap News)

The results of an Apr. 3 poll by the National Election Commission (NEC) about voting intentions have been borne out in early voting on Apr. 10-11, which brought out a record 26.7% of voters. If this trend continues, the overall turnout in the parliamentary elections could end up exceeding not only the previous parliamentary elections four years ago (58.0%) but also the 2004 parliamentary elections, which set a record for voter turnout (60.6%).

Early voting turnout

A Hankyoreh analysis of NEC data on Apr. 12 shows that early voting turnout was comparatively high both in electoral districts pitting heavy hitters from the two major parties and in battleground districts in which the top candidates are running neck and neck. In other districts, general turnout formulas applied, with rural areas seeing more voters heading to the polls than big cities.

The highest early voting turnout in Seoul was seen in Jongno, with 34.68%. That’s the district where Democratic Party candidate Lee Nak-yeon, former prime minister, is facing off against United Future Party (UFP) candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn, the party’s leader.

The next highest turnout, at 30.7%, was reported in Dongjak B, a race that pits Democratic Party candidate Lee Su-jin against UFP candidate Na Kyung-won. The early voting turnout in these two districts was between 3-7 points higher than Seoul’s average district turnout of 27.33%.

Across South Korea’s provinces and metropolitan cities, Daegu had the lowest early voting turnout, at 23.6%. Even so, 30.18% of eligible voters headed to the polls early in Suseong A, the district with the tightest race in the nation, between Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum and UFP candidate Ju Ho-yeong. Another Daegu district where turnout was far above average, at 27.61%, was Suseong B, where Hong Jun-pyo, former conservative leader, is running as an independent, opening up a three-way race.

The district with the most early voting in Busan was Nam B (27.82%), where Democratic Party candidate Park Jae-ho and UFP candidate Lee Eon-ju are polling within the margin of error. Yeonsu B, in Incheon, notable because there are three candidates in contention there (from the Democratic Party, UFP, and Justice Party), reported a turnout of 25.84%, exceeding the overall Incheon average of 24.74%.

Considering the high turnout reported in hotly contested districts, the unusually high participation in early voting appears to be the intersection of two factors. One is the sharp political divisions provoked by the Cho Kuk scandal last year; the other is fears about COVID-19, motivating people to vote early, ahead of the crowds expected on election day. Another factor that should be mentioned is that the early voting system has become a political fixture during the 10 years since its introduction.

Voters line up for early voting at Baekseok Library in Goyang, Gyeonggi Province, on Apr. 11. (Yonhap News)

Both the Democratic Party and the UFP have been rushing to devise a winning formula, both interpreting the voting fervor in their own favor. The Democratic Party said that the early voting represented “the passionate and resolute expression of the public’s desire to overcome the national crisis of COVID-19 and to leave the country in charge of a government that will take care of them.” Meanwhile, the UFP said the high turnout “expressed the rage of a public intent on stopping the current government’s reckless and authoritarian rule.”

However, experts have been hesitant to predict which party will benefit from the energy at the polls. “When young people didn’t vote very much, higher turnout was interpreted as working in the advantage of the progressive camp. But overall political participation has been increasing recently, and voting appears to be increasing evenly in each generation. The terrain of political participation has changed too much to draw conclusions about which parties will benefit and which will lose out from increased voter turnout,” said Park Seong-min, head of Min Consulting.

Won Seong-hun, director of Korea Research, offered a similar viewpoint. “The fact that the election has narrowed down to the two big parties has gripped voters’ attention, which seems to have driven up turnout. If this is bringing out both parties’ bases, it’s hard to guess who stands to gain.”

In a second poll that the NEC conducted on Apr. 5-6 (with a reliability of 95% and a sample error of ±2.5 points), 79.0% of respondents said they would “definitely” vote, which was 6.3 points higher than the earlier poll. Including those who said they would vote “if possible” (15.1%) brings the percentage of respondents who intend to vote to 94.1%. The NEC added that the voting intention rates had increased in all age cohorts compared to its second poll four years ago.

By Kim Mi-na and Noh Hyun-woong, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]