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Shincheonji-related cases in Daegu, N. Gyeongsang and recent cases of COVID-19 in Greater Seoul

“I think the current situation is somewhat more dangerous than the outbreak in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province and the Itaewon club outbreak.” — Jung Eun-kyeong, director of South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC)

“Some aspects of the situation in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province are more dangerous than the infection cluster in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province in February and March.” — Kim Kang-lip, deputy director of the Central Disease Control Headquarters and vice health minister

South Korea’s confirmed cases of COVID-19 have surged by 745 people over the past four days. Simply looking at the numbers, the situation hasn’t reached the daily record of 909 confirmed cases, which was set on Feb. 29. But what’s more troubling is that cases are occurring haphazardly, making them harder for disease control authorities to trace, and that those cases are mostly spreading in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA) and among the elderly. That’s why the government regards the situation as a graver crisis than before, though so far it has only been described as the first phase of a second wave.

During the four days between Aug. 14 and 17, 625 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the SCA. That figure accounts for 83.9% of the total cases (745) over that period. As of noon on Aug. 17, 307 of 319 infected parishioners at Sarang Jeil Church in Seoul’s Seongbuk District, which has emerged as an epicenter of the current outbreak, were residents of the SCA.

“People with no symptoms or mild symptoms that we haven’t diagnosed have probably built up in the SCA over the past six months,” said Jung Eun-kyeong, director of South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), warning of an increased risk.

Medical personnel at work at a screening clinic in Seoul’s Seongbuk District on Aug. 17. (Park Jong-shik, staff photographer)

Half of the country’s population is concentrated in the SCA, which also sees considerable traffic from other parts of the country. This creates potential for an exponential surge in cases on a different scale from the infection cluster in Daegu, a city of 2.5 million, which began at the local branch of the Shincheonji religious sect. There are already indications that the outbreak has passed beyond the SCA into other parts of the country, with people who attended services at Sarang Jeil Church testing positive in Gangwon Province, Daejeon, and North Gyeongsang Province on Aug. 16-17.

Korea’s disease control authorities have recently been facing difficulties in their contract tracing. Sarang Jeil Church, with a congregation of 4,066, is smaller than the Shincheonji religious sect, but some members of its congregation made contact with members of other churches during demonstrations at Gyeongbokgung Palace on Aug. 8 and at Gwanghwamun Square on Aug. 15. But disease control authorities haven’t even been able to draw up a list of the churchgoers who attended those demonstrations.

On Aug. 17, Jun Kwang-hoon, head pastor of Sarang Jeil Church, was among a number of church members at the Gwanghwamun demonstration who tested positive for COVID-19. As demonstrators shouted slogans and shared snacks, they likely came into contact with virus-filled droplets. On Monday, Korea’s Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters (CDSCH) sent out an emergency alert instructing everyone who attended the Gwanghwamun demonstration to immediately get tested for COVID-19 whether or not they have symptoms.

“Back in February and March, the infection cluster was concentrated in members of a single organization [Shincheonji]. But the risk is greater now because [infected people] are coming into contact with the general public at church services and demonstrations,” said Kim Kang-lip, deputy director of the Central Disease Control Headquarters.

More cases are expected to crop up among members of Sarang Jeil Church. The test positivity rate among the 2,000 church members who have been tested so far is quite high, at 16.1%. The authorities have been unable to contact more than a thousand members of the church, including 623 whose addresses haven’t been determined.

Another problem is that transmission of COVID-19 isn’t only happening at churches. “New cases are occurring simultaneously not only at high-risk locations but also at everyday locations such as churches, cafés, restaurants, and schools, which means that everyone is at higher risk of being exposed to COVID-19,” Jung said.

For example, an infection cluster at the Gold Train office in Seoul’s Gangnam District let to further transmission at a neighborhood party in Yangpyeong County, Gyeonggi Province, and an infection cluster at a company with locations in Gangnam and Yeongdeungpo Districts caused infections among employees and family members.

The authorities have been unable to identify the route of transmission for 11.6% of cases over the past two weeks. There are still no answers about the origin of an outbreak at a Starbucks near Yadang Station in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, where a total of 42 people were infected. As the number of seemingly random infection clusters increases, it becomes harder for the spread of transmission to be controlled through contact tracing. The disease control authorities are very concerned that cluster infections that began at churches in the SCA will create a cascade of secondary clusters at call centers, daycares, and nursing homes.

Another risk factor is that, whereas Koreans voluntarily participated in social distancing during the initial outbreak of the disease, the overall attitude in society toward disease control has grown more lax since then. “While there were shortcomings with the medical response system in terms of categorizing and treating patients during the outbreak in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province in February and March, robust social distancing efforts allowed us to quickly bring the crisis under control. Now, we have better medical response capabilities, but public vigilance has decreased amid the protracted pandemic and the monsoon season and humid weather,” said Kang, who asked people in the SCA to return to their previous level of alertness, such as by cancelling get-togethers and staying at home.

Another worrying development is that a large number of confirmed cases in recent days are elderly individuals, in their 60s and above. The fatality rate was low during the Shincheonji and Itaewon club outbreaks because most patients were in their 20s and 30s. But 69 of the 197 new cases reported through Aug. 16, or 35%, were in their 60s and older. That’s higher than the elderly share of the cumulative caseload, which stands at 24%. More elderly patients would inevitably strain the medical workforce and occupy hospital beds reserved for treating critical patients. One out of four COVID-19 patients in their 80s and above has died, and those in their 70s and above have seen a case fatality rate of 8.75%, much higher than the total rate of 1.98%.

While the daily tally of COVID-19 cases on Sunday (197) was somewhat lower than the previous day (279), that’s no reason to relax. During the first wave in February, the daily caseload soared to a peak of 909 just one week after first topping a hundred (190 on Feb. 22).

By Hwang Ye-rang, staff reporter

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