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Prosecutor-General Yoon Seok-youl in front of the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office on Nov. 11, 2019. (Park Jong-shik, staff photographer)

South Korea’s political world was roiled by the results of a poll released by Real Meter on Nov. 2 about voter preferences for the next president. Prosecutor-General Yoon Seok-youl came in third place, garnering 17.2% of support. He was 4.3 points behind the two frontrunners from the ruling Democratic Party, party leader Lee Nak-yon and Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, who were tied at 21.5%.

Commissioned by Oh My News, Real Meter surveyed 2,576 people above the age of 18 around the country on Oct. 26-30. The poll had a reliability of 95% and a sample error of ±1.9 points.

The same day, a rumor made the rounds claiming that Yoon’s actual support in the poll was higher but that the pollsters had used weighted values to depress it. Is there any truth to the sensational claims in the rumor about Yoon’s third-place showing in the poll? There’s no way to know. But the rumor doesn’t seem very credible considering that the weighted values used in the poll results are strictly monitored by Korea’s National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

Even if the rumor is false, the poll results themselves are of considerable interest for two reasons. First, Yoon’s support was up 6.7 points from a Real Meter poll last month. That kind of sharp rise signifies a shift in Yoon’s political calculus.

Second, the fact that Yoon has more than 15% of support indicates that he could explore the possibility of running as an independent. There’s a saying among pundits that a support rating of 15% is enough to keep someone in the race.

The poll results had been foreordained since the parliamentary audit of the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office, on Oct. 22. Both political parties regarded the audit as representing a coronation for Yoon, whether or not that should be understood in a positive sense. The event turned Yoon from a mere prosecutor-general into a politician.

“After leaving this post, I will take time to consider how I can serve Korean society and the Korean public,” Yoon said. When People Power Party lawmaker Kim Do-eup asked if that meant that Yoon was planning to enter politics, Yoon said, “That’s not something I can talk about.”

Yoon’s ambition is obvious, but could he really be Korea’s next president?

“Yoon has changed over the past few months,” an individual who sees Yoon frequently confided to me. “He’s gotten so much pressure from the political world that he’s starting to think that he should join politics. I’m worried about him.”

If Yoon is seriously pondering a political career, an approval rating of over 15% could be a motivator. But the general view among figures in the Democratic Party is that the presidency is out of his reach.

“We should actually be happy that Yoon has so much support as a presidential candidate. He’s the weakest candidate out there. Just imagine Yoon making a speech about universal basic income or national employment insurance. Wouldn’t that be awkward?” said a key member of the party.

“Even seasoned politicians get pummeled when they enter the ring of a presidential election. Unless Yoon has given some serious thought to the actual lives of Koreans, a few questions from reporters would be enough to show he’s out of his depth.”

Even figures with the opposition People Power Party aren’t supportive of Yoon moving into politics. “Politics requires training, and I don’t support the idea of abruptly joining politics,” said Joo Ho-young, the party’s floor leader, on Nov. 4.

Numerous lawmakers in the People Power Party still resent actions taken by Yoon earlier in his career as a prosecutor.

The Democratic Party is worried for another reason. Yoon is a variable that could rattle the by-election for the Seoul mayorship, which is less than five months away. That’s one of the reasons the party is reluctant to openly push for Yoon’s resignation even after he made what amounts to a political declaration.

“Yoon could never be a candidate in the presidential election. But if we ask Yoon to step down and he resigns before the by-election, he could join up with forces opposed to President Moon. Such concerns give us a reason to generally avoid making a big fuss about Yoon,” said a lawmaker in the Democratic Party’s leadership.

That’s also why some in the party are upset with Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae. Considering that Yoon’s powers as prosecutor-general have already been severely curtailed, some lawmakers don’t understand why Choo keeps attacking the man and making a political issue out of him.

To return to our earlier question: could Yoon be the next president? No one can predict the future. But one liability for Yoon is the fact that few people who are politically untested have managed to transmute a sudden surge of popularity into a successful career in politics.

One year ago, Hwang Kyo-ahn, former leader of the Liberty Korea Party (forerunner of the People Power Party), enjoyed 20% of support in a likely presidential candidate poll by the same organization, coming in second behind Lee Nak-yon, then prime minister. But now Hwang’s in such a sorry state that his political career may be permanently over.

By Kim Won-chul, staff reporter

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