hankyoreh

South Korean President Moon Jae-in presides over a meeting of senior aides and secretaries at the Blue House on Nov. 30. (Yonhap News)

The Moon Jae-in administration’s approval ratings are at their lowest since Moon’s inauguration, according to opinion polls. The ruling Democratic Party was also overtaken in support by the People Power Party (PPP) within the margin of error. The decline in support for the administration and ruling party was especially steep among progressives as opposed to moderates or conservatives, leading to speculation that cracks have formed in their previously rock-solid base.

A three-day survey of 1,508 voters nationwide conducted by Real Meter between Nov. 30 and Dec. 2 at the request of the Traffic Broadcasting System (TBS) showed Moon’s governance approval rating at 37.4%, down by 6.4 percentage points from the week before (95% confidence level, margin of error ±2.5 percentage points), the polling organization announced on Dec. 3. Not only did approval fall below the 40-50% range that Moon had enjoyed to date, but it also marked its lowest level since the administration took office. It sank below the previous low of 41.4%, which occurred during the second week of October 2019 amid an investigation of former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, whom Moon had appointed to carry out prosecutorial reform. Negative ratings were found to be up 5.1 points from the week before to 57.3%.

Current Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae’s suspension of Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl and Yoon’s subsequent return to duty following a court ruling appear to have been major factors in the diminished support. Real Meter published daily indicators based on its survey over the three-day period, with positive governance ratings of 38.8% on Nov. 30, 36.7% on Dec. 1, and 38.2% on Dec. 2. Dec. 1 was the day that the Ministry of Justice’s audit board determined Choo’s suspension of Yoon to be “mistaken,” allowing Yoon to return to work as prosecutor general after the Seoul Administrative Court accepted his request for an injunction of his suspension. The data indicates that the Choo-Yoon feud has negatively impacted Moon’s approval ratings.

An examination of political leanings showed a notable trend of disaffection among progressives rather than conservatives or moderates. Analysis of Moon’s support ratings by political identification showed 64.2% among progressives, down by 7.8 points from 72.0% the week before. In contrast, support among moderates stood at 35.8%, a decrease of 5.5 points from 41.3% the previous week. By region, a 36.2% rate of negative ratings was observed among respondents in the Honam region, up 10 points from 26.2% the week before — indicating a decrease in support among the progressives and Honam voters who represent the Democratic Party’s traditional support base.

“This broke from the normal pattern of political trends being determined by moderates and unaffiliated voters, in that the decline was bigger among progressives, who really dictated the overall shift,” observed Bae Cheol-ho, a senior member of Real Meter’s expert committee.

“We’ll need to observe patterns going forward, but this basically shows that the Choo-Yoon feud stands to turn off not only moderates and conservatives, but also the Democratic Party’s ‘concrete base,’” Bae suggested.

There was also a reversal in support ratings for the Democratic Party and the PPP. The latest survey showed the PPP with a 31.2% approval rating, putting it ahead of the Democratic Party’s 28.9% within the margin of error. Support for the PPP was up by 3.3 points from the previous week, while support for the Democratic Party slid by 5.2 points. The next highest levels of support were for the People’s Party (6.7%), Open Democratic Party (6.0%), and Justice Party (5.5%). Support for the Democratic Party also fell by 9.9 points among progressives, as opposed to 2.7 points among moderates.

More details can be found on the website of Real Meter and the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission (Korean only).

By Noh Hyun-woong, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]