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Shipping containers converted to accommodate temporary hospital beds in front of Seoul Medical Center on Dec. 16. (Yonhap News)

On Dec. 16, South Korea reported 1,078 cases of COVID-19, the country’s highest daily caseload to date. The virus has been spreading at a fearsome rate, with new cases within the last month accounting for 29% of the total number of patients diagnosed thus far. The average daily caseload has exceeded 800 for the past week, meeting the standard for imposing Level 3 social distancing measures.

In anticipation of a possible Level 3 upgrade, the government is strongly considering closing all businesses other than those selling daily essentials, which would limit restaurants strictly to takeout and delivery.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH), South Korea reported 1,054 new domestic cases and 24 cases from overseas on Dec. 16. After crossing the 1,000 mark on Dec. 13 at 1,030 cases, the number of new diagnoses dipped briefly to the 700-900 range but ascended above 1,000 after three days. This also marked the first time the number of community transmissions (excluding cases from overseas) exceeded 1,000. Among domestic infections, 71.8% (757) were in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA): 373 in Seoul, 320 in Gyeonggi Province, and 64 in Incheon.

After infection clusters were discovered at nursing hospitals and churches, additional clusters broke out at ski resorts and construction sites. Following its first case on Dec. 12, a total of 61 patients had been diagnosed as of Dec. 16 in connection with a construction site in Seoul’s Yongsan District. At a ski resort in Pyeongchang County, Gangwon Province, 10 employees and one ski instructor tested positive.

“We’re investigating the possibility that transmission occurred through group meals or other group activities in staff dormitories outside of working hours,” explained Gwak Jin, director of the CDCH patient management team. Many cases were also diagnosed at religious establishments, including a religious facility in Jecheon, North Chungcheong Province (22), Naeum Church in Dangjin, South Chungcheong province (111), Youngshin Church in Daegu’s Dalseong County (63), and a religious facility in Daegu’s Jung (Central) District (12).

The daily average of domestic cases from Dec. 10 to 16 was calculated at 833. The range of 800-1,000 cases per day for a week straight is listed as a standard for upgrading to Level 3 measures. However, the government has announced that it is deliberating ways to minimize the economic impact of such an upgrade.

“Rather than just going ahead willy-nilly with a Level 3 regime, we need to prepare support measures in anticipation of the ripple effect it will have on the economy and livelihoods,” said Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun during a meeting of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters (CDSCH) at Seoul City Hall that day. Despite experts having consistently said that a Level 3 upgrade would be inevitable amid the current outbreak, it seems the government has only just begun preparing for such an upgrade.

In a regular briefing that day, Son Young-rae, director of the Central Disaster Management Headquarters (CDMH) strategy and planning team, explained, “Many experts are proposing the following: shutting down all businesses except those that sell essentials like food, eyeglasses, and medication; allowing only takeout and delivery at restaurants and cafes; shutting down ski resorts and other seasonal businesses; and lowering the threshold for gatherings from 10 to five people.”

“Originally, businesses shut down under a Level 3 regime are large-scale establishments with a sales floor area of 3,000 square meters or larger,” he said. “But since transmissions are occurring in all types of daily activity, experts are discussing a shutdown of all businesses except those providing daily essentials, rather than using size to determine which businesses are subject to bans.”

As distancing measures thus far have failed to significantly reduce the number of new infections, many are calling for supplementary measures in addition to a Level 3 upgrade that would boost its effectiveness. Compared to lower levels, the measures under Level 3 are relatively simple. Rather than differentiating among businesses and applying different regulations for each category, a Level 3 regime would shut down all businesses apart from those deemed essential for industry and daily life (including essential industrial facilities, residential and hospitality establishments, restaurants, grocery stores, essential commercial facilities, and healthcare facilities).

Gatherings of 10 or more people would be prohibited. But analysts have predicted that various blind spots could arise through this approach. In particular, experts and the government are both wrestling with the need for guidelines tailored to the current wave, which includes scattered cases of transmission in gatherings among family members and acquaintances.

By Choi Ha-yan, staff reporter

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