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Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae, President Moon Jae-in, and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl. (Yonhap News)

“A suspension of three months or less means that Yoon Seok-youl wins by decision; a suspension of five months or more means that Choo Mi-ae wins by decision; dismissal means that Yoon loses by a knockout; and an acquittal means that Choo loses by a knockout.”

That was how one law school professor, a self-described “reasonable progressive,” broke down the potential outcomes prior to the prosecutorial disciplinary board’s decision about charges brought against Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl.

For one thing, Choo was the one who had requested the disciplinary proceedings and had appointed the members of the board that decided on the disciplinary action. For another, Yoon has seven months left in his term as prosecutor general. Given those factors, a suspension of three months or less would essentially be a “defeat by decision” for Choo.

In the end, Yoon was given a two-month suspension. Though that wrapped up the “Choo-Yoon feud,” which had lasted for more than a year, it’s unlikely to be viewed as legitimate. The decision belies Choo’s account of having suffered an “indescribable shock” when she was briefed about the results of an internal probe that had turned up “grave and serious charges of illegality,” an account she gave when suspending Yoon from his duties and requesting disciplinary proceedings against him.

Legal sources in Seoul reported feeling “tricked by clickbait headlines” about the “surveillance of judges,” one of the central charges in the disciplinary proceedings against Yoon.

On Dec. 16, when the disciplinary board’s decision was announced, Choo abruptly tendered her resignation. That was just three hours after she’d spoken about her future on the job in a joint meeting of Korea’s three main law enforcement agencies (the police, the prosecutors, and the national intelligence agency).

“As the justice minister, the person holding the supreme authority for overseeing the work of the prosecutors, I promise to the Korean people that I will continue to do my best to complete the mission of prosecutorial reform, which has remained unresolved for so long, and to facilitate the transformation of the prosecution service into an impartial organization trusted by the public,” she said during that meeting.

Even sources in the prosecutors said her resignation came “unexpectedly.” As Yoon’s “mortal enemy” Choo leaves the stage, Yoon is guaranteed five more months at the helm of the prosecution service, which makes some prosecutors think the field has tilted to his advantage.

But victory and defeat, and the degree of victory, are still up in the air. On the evening of Dec. 17, Yoon filed a lawsuit with the Seoul Administrative Court asking for his disciplinary measures to be reversed and also filed an injunction to the same effect. The lawsuit reflects Yoon’s determination to “set right, according to the constitution and the laws, the mistake” made by the disciplinary board, whose punishment he described as “unfair and illegal measures aimed at forcing out a prosecutor general during his term in office [. . .] that severely undermined the rule of law and the political neutrality and independence of the prosecution service.”

But Yoon’s legal battle also entails political risks since it gives the appearance of a confrontation with President Moon Jae-in, who expressed his hope “that the confusion surrounding the prosecutor general will be brought to a close and that this will be a new beginning for the prosecution service and the Justice Ministry” when he approved the disciplinary board’s recommendation of giving Yoon a two-month suspension.

The Blue House is trying to downplay the confrontation by saying that the defendant in the lawsuit is the justice minister. But in the absence of Choo, who requested the disciplinary proceedings and recommended Yoon’s suspension, Yoon’s adversary in the lawsuit must inevitably be the president, who ordered the execution of the disciplinary measures against Yoon.

“Now that Yoon has bested the middleweight champion [Yoon], he is challenging the heavyweight champion [Moon],” said an attorney who used to serve as a prosecutor.

The court has scheduled a hearing on Dec. 22 in Yoon’s request for an injunction against his suspension. The potential outcomes of this trial can be broken down into three main scenarios. First, some think Yoon has the advantage because his right to defend himself wasn’t adequately guaranteed in the disciplinary proceedings against him. If the court speedily grants Yoon an injunction, he’ll be back on the job. Since it would take a long time for his main lawsuit to be finalized, that would allow Yoon to finish his term in office, which ends next July.

Yoon’s return to the job would render the disciplinary action meaningless and would also be a heavy blow for Moon, who gave the approval. That could also add momentum to an investigation into the alleged fabrication of documents related to the economic viability of the Wolsong-1 nuclear reactor, an investigation that has raised the hackles of the ruling party. Furthermore, it could reinforce Yoon’s commitment to investigate the “powers that be.” That’s the scenario preferred by Yoon and his allies.

In the second scenario, the court rejects Yoon’s petition for an injunction. This assumes that a court is unlikely to block measures recommended by a disciplinary panel and approved by the president under the Act on Discipline of Prosecutors. That would likely influence the public to regard the disciplinary measures against Yoon as appropriate and motivate the ruling party to put more pressure on Yoon to step down. The newly appointed justice minister could even push through another round of personnel assignments, leaving Yoon with even less room to maneuver when he returns to the job in two months.

The third scenario envisions Yoon’s voluntary resignation. That would allow him to be recognized as a prosecutor general who departed after standing up to oppression from the Moon administration, giving his popularity a further boost and increasing the likelihood that he’ll jump into politics. But Yoon has ruled out the possibility of resigning, reflecting his conviction that he’s a victim of Choo’s attempt to force him out of office.

And so Yoon, having bested the middleweight champion, continues to challenge the heavyweight champion, leaving us to wonder who the ultimate winner will be.

By Ock Kee-won, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]