[Reporter’s notebook] Will the Moon administration’s stalled “inter-Korean peace train” restart its journey in 2021?

Posted on : 2021-01-04 18:09 KST Modified on : 2021-01-04 18:09 KST
S. Korea needs to move to arrange summit between Biden and Kim Jong-un

As of January 2021, South Korean President Moon Jae-in has just one year and four months left in office. The Moon administration is likely to make an all-out effort to restart its Korean Peninsula peace process, which is currently stalled.

Moon briefly summarized his assessment of the current situation in his opening remarks to a meeting of five key government officials on Dec. 22.

“In terms of foreign policy, the Biden administration will be taking over the US government in January. Both North Korea-US dialogue and inter-Korean dialogue are halted because of that transitional period. As long as nothing unexpected happens before Biden’s inauguration, I think the launch of a new administration could be an opportunity to give a fresh impetus to North Korea-US dialogue and inter-Korean dialogue, an opportunity for development,” Moon said.

Those remarks show that Moon blames the impasse in dialogue on the transfer of power in the US and that he’s optimistic that Joe Biden’s inauguration as US president will restore momentum for dialogue.

But circumstances are intimidating, with Moon confronting a range of negative factors. In addition to considerable distrust between Pyongyang and the incoming Biden administration, the strategic rivalry between the US and China will continue in 2021, and there are no obvious solutions for South Korea’s dispute with Japan.

Seoul’s role is mitigating distrust between Washington and Pyongyang

And as Moon implied with his caveat about “as long as nothing unexpected happens before Biden’s inauguration,” the key to turning the situation around is held not by South Korea, but by North Korea and the US. In the end, South Korea’s role should be persuading those two countries to overcome their mistrust and come to the table as they did in early 2018, when dialogue between the two sides miraculously began.

The first question is inter-Korean relations. Exactly how much close communication is taking place between Seoul and Pyongyang at the current moment hasn’t been confirmed.

But considering that the two leaders swapped friendly letters in September 2020, it seems clear that the channels of communication that were completely severed during a sharp dispute in June have been restored to some extent.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sent a conciliatory message to South Korea during his speech at the military parade on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) on Oct. 10, saying that he hopes a day will come when South and North Korea can join hands once again.

The South Korean government has also reportedly used a variety of channels to tell the North that it should refrain from any behavior that would provoke the Biden administration.

That underscores the importance of the new foreign policy line that North Korea will unveil in its 8th WPK Congress, scheduled for this month.

If North Korea helps set the mood for dialogue by refraining from provocations, the US should draw up a reasonable and practical North Korean policy.

According to the memoir of former US National Security Advisor John Bolton, Moon advised the US to continue its “top-down” approach to the North Korean nuclear issue, compared to a “bottom-up” approach based on working-level negotiations. Moon’s rationale was that North Korea’s low-level negotiators don’t have the discretion to make decisions about the nuclear issue.

But since Biden values working-level negotiations and cooperation with allies, there’s virtually no chance that he’d agree to maintaining Trump’s top-down approach. That means that considerable policy adjustments are in store for South Korea and the US.

On Dec. 21, the South Korean government replaced a number of important officials, including the special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs.

Lack of preparation could lead to failure again

The first phase of adjustment of South Korea-US policy will conclude in Biden and Moon’s first summit, which will take place in the first half of the year. Level-headed and detail-oriented communication is important.

After George W. Bush’s inauguration in January 2001, former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung pulled forward his first summit with the new American president, which would typically be held in May or June, with the hope of persuading Bush to cooperate on Kim’s Sunshine Policy.

Held on Mar. 7, 2001, that summit turned out to be a major diplomatic failure because of the lack of advance preparation. That’s a lesson we’d do well to remember.

By Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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