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Kim Yong-chol, director of the United Front Department in the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (Yonhap News)

Kim Yong-chol, director of the United Front Department in the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), took aim at South Korea in a statement Wednesday, which said that authorities "must be made to clearly understand how dearly they have to pay for answering our good faith with hostile acts."

Kim said that North Korea would "make [South Korean authorities] realize by the minute what a dangerous choice they made."

Coming on the heels of another statement from WPK Deputy Director Kim Yo-jong the day before targeting the US over the 21-2 Combined Command Post Training exercise set to begin on Monday, the latest message signals that Pyongyang is ratcheting up tension on the Korean Peninsula by targeting South Korea as well.

Kim Yong-chol's "press statement" was published at 8 am Wednesday by the Korea Central News Agency, a North Korean news outlet for an international rather than domestic audience.

"In disregard of our advice, [South Korean authorities] opted for alliance with outsiders, not harmony with compatriots, escalation of tension, not détente, and confrontation, not improved relations," he wrote.

"Now that they made their clear option known to the whole world, defying the opportunity, we will have to make clearer corresponding decision," he added.

"We will keep going on with what we should do," he said.

From its context, the message seems to suggest that Pyongyang intends to pursue a path of antagonism and conflict — what it referred to previously as "power for power" — rather than one of dialogue and negotiations.

But Kim did not mention specifically what he meant by "what we should do," nor did he mention the North's failure to answer its end of the inter-Korean military communication line and other hotlines on Tuesday afternoon. This suggests he was leaving room for Pyongyang to decide on the tempo and content of its subsequent measures toward Seoul and Washington.

In her statement Tuesday, Kim Yo-jong reaffirmed the "power for power and goodwill for goodwill" approach toward the US, previously stated by her brother, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

"We will put more spur to further increasing the deterrent of absolute capacity to cope with the ever-growing military threats from the U.S., i.e. the national defence capabilities and powerful preemptive strike for rapidly countering any military actions against us," she warned.

The statements from Kim Yo-jong and Kim Yong-chol reflect North Korea's basic perception that the annual South Korea-US joint military exercises are a "rehearsal for a war of aggression" and epitomize the "hostile policies of the US" toward the North.

In addition to being part of a battle of wills over leadership in the peninsula's political situation, they also serve to build a justification for future actions as the situation deteriorates amid the two sides' conflict. While Kim Yo-jong's statement focused its condemnation and threats on the US, Kim Yong-chol's statement was directed mainly at the South.

Kim Yo-jong's statement referred to boosting the "national defence capabilities and powerful preemptive strike [capabilities]," while Kim Yong-chol's referred to making the South "realize [. . .] a serious security crisis."

Among the most forceful strategic military actions, Pyongyang could take would be a test launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). North Korea has reportedly continued to make performance improvements since its announcement of a successful test launch of the new Pukguksong-3 SLBM on Oct. 2, 2019.

But an SLBM launch would also be a risky gambit that threatens to invite a stern response from the administration of US President Joe Biden, qualitatively transforming the situation on the peninsula from a deadlock to all-out confrontation.

North Korea would also have to consider China, which is certain to be anxious about political stability in Northeast Asia ahead of the Winter Olympics scheduled to take place in Beijing from Feb. 4 to 20, 2022. All of this means that Pyongyang has a complex set of calculations to make before taking action.

Some potential means of pressuring the South have already been threatened. In a March 16 statement denouncing the South Korea-US joint military exercises held in the spring, Kim Yo-jong asserted that "war drills and hostility can never go with dialogue and cooperation."

She also said Pyongyang was reviewing the potential elimination of its organizations involved in inter-Korean exchange and cooperation, including the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea — North Korea's organization for dialogue with the South — and the Mt. Kumgang International Tourism Bureau.

She went on to suggest that the inter-Korean military agreement reached on Sept. 19, 2018, could be scrapped if South Korean authorities behave "more provocatively."

Her remarks threatened the possibility of inter-Korean relations reverting to an era of confrontation without dialogue, exchange, or cooperation — and an era of military clashes, depending on how the situation unfolds.

It remains unclear whether the North will make good on its threat from March, and where it will start or how quickly it will move if it does. A former senior South Korean government official said, "We can't rule out the possibility of some low-intensity military activity in the short term, including [the use] things like multiple rocket launchers."

According to that analysis, the likelihood of the North taking action in a way that essentially damages or reverses progress in inter-Korean relations is not high at the moment.

Sharing the administration's position in response to Kim Yong-chol's statement, a Ministry of Unification official said that it "helps no one for military tensions to rise on the Korean Peninsula."

"We reiterate the importance of resuming dialogue between the parties quickly for the sake of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and the advancement of inter-Korean relations," the official said.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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