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A worker at Hana Bank’s dealing room in downtown Seoul watches news of North Korea’s ballistic missile launch on Nov. 3. (Yonhap)

On Thursday, North Korea launched its seventh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) of the year. If Wednesday’s launch of a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) that crossed the Northern Limit Line (NLL) was a show of force aimed at South Korea, Thursday's ICBM launch can be interpreted as a blatant military threat directed at the US.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are rising sharply as the North develops and operates tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, and the South responds by extending joint military drills with the US.

North Korea launched 25 missiles on Wednesday, followed by a Hwasong-17 missile, considered to be an ICBM, on Thursday morning. The missile fell into the East Sea after second-stage separation, showing that it failed to follow a normal flight path.

Lee Choon-geun, a senior research fellow at the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI) explained, “An ICBM’s first-stage rocket engine burns in the atmosphere, but the second-stage engine burns in a vacuum state.”

“The second-stage engine takes a long time to combust as ignition and extinguishment is repeated several times, but it is difficult to re-ignite in a vacuum state. Whether we’re talking about Hwasong-15 or a Hwasong-17, North Korea’s ICBMs have unstable second-stage engines,” Lee said.

If Thursday’s ICBM launch was a failure, Lee added that “there is a high possibility that a problem occurred with the second-stage engine, which is in development.”

However, many have pointed out that the failure of this missile launch does not mean that we can underestimate the danger it poses. This is the seventh time this year alone that North Korea has launched ICBM-class missiles.

The missile launched on May 25, which South Korean and US intelligence authorities assessed to be a Hwasong-17, had a flight distance of 360 km and a max altitude of 540 km. The missile launched on Thursday had a flight distance of 760 km and a maximum altitude of 1920 km. This means that the missile in May was a performance test of the first-stage rocket engine, while the missile launched on Thursday focused on the second-stage engine. This shows that North Korea has been advancing its missile technology through several launch tests.

Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, commented, “When it comes to ICBM development, whether the launch is a success or not, with every launch they accumulate data to use to correct and supplement further experiments.”

He also went on to say that “by looking at the angle of the missile launch (which was very high and not at a normal angle) and the flight path, we can determine that North Korea intended to test something.”

In other words, if the North has secured the data that it needed for the development of ICBMs, that means the North has somewhat achieved its desired results.

North Korea set legal standards for the development and operation of its nuclear forces in September and even conducted a large-scale “tactical nuclear operation training” drill last month with leader Kim Jong-un in attendance.

From a strategic perspective, this means that the real threat of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program — deterrence by denial — has become a reality. What remains is to complete its ability to retaliate against the US by targeting the US mainland — deterrence by punishment. This is why some predict that similar test launches will continue.

Experts predict that North Korea might make strategic provocations in the form of nuclear tests, ICBM test launches, submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) tests, or satellite launches. In contrast to the past, nuclear tests and missile launches can be carried out at any time based on when the North feels the need.

When South Korea and the US decided to extend the Vigilant Storm joint air drill past its original end date on Friday, Pak Jong-chon, secretary of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party of Korea, strongly criticized that decision by saying, “The irresponsible decision of the US and South Korea is shoving the present situation, caused by provocative military acts of the allied forces, to an uncontrollable phase.”

“It is a very dangerous and false choice,” Pak said.

Former Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul, currently a professor at Inje University, stated, “The North has changed, and the international situation has changed. This is a ‘complex crisis’ that is different from past situations.”

He went on to say that if we do not judge the current situation based on the changed present, it is very likely that any sort of confrontation, whether intended or otherwise, might happen.

“We need to be pragmatic and control the wider effects of rising tensions.”

By Jung In-hwan, staff reporter

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