hankyoreh

Pyongyang test-fired several short-range missiles off the western coast on March 28 following the expulsion of 11 South Korean officials from the Gaeseong (Kaesong) Industrial Complex on the previous day. These measures, combined with a statement issued by the North Korean Foreign Ministry prior to the missile launch regarding its nuclear programs, have multiple purposes.

Above all, the North could not have chosen more perfect timing for its actions. By test-firing the missiles and issuing the statement as South Korea’s Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hwan was wrapping up the final day of a diplomatic visit to both China and the United States, North Korea has sent a clear message. The launch also comes just as President Lee Myung-bak has begun to implement his new unification policy and line up his staff.

The statement issued prior to the missile launch, which was carried by the North’s Korean Central News Agency and said that North Korea had “not enriched uranium or cooperated with any other country on nuclear projects,” seems to have been aimed at disrupting plans for a planned summit between South Korea and the United States slated for April. The North’s demand for the withdrawal of South Korean officials from the Gaeseong Industrial Complex seemed to have targeted a meeting that Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong held with people doing business in the industrial district of the North Korean border city.

Politically speaking, the fact that campaigning for South Korea’s April 9 National Assembly election kicked off earlier this week may also have been a factor for the North. But regardless of whether this was the case or not, the tension generated by the North Korea policy of President Lee Myung-bak’s administration is expected to be an issue in the upcoming election.

The North’s message is clear. The reclusive state seems to be rejecting the South Korean government’s attempts to link the nuclear problem to inter-Korean relations. It also appears to be refuting remarks made by the United States, which have indicated that as far as the nuclear matter goes, the ball has been put in the North’s court. The North also appears to be hinting that it will not ask the South for humanitarian aid.

In the statement, Pyongyang did not change its long-standing position on the promised declaration of its nuclear programs, namely that it has not enriched uranium nor engaged in nuclear proliferation activities, and warned that the “false insistence” of the United States would have a serious impact on the processes being undertaken to disable its nuclear facilities.

Pyongyang’s stance is threatening the sense of optimism felt by President Lee’s administration, which has emphasized the universal value of the North Korean human rights issue and the principle of reciprocity on humanitarian aid.

Overall, however, the basic position of the new administration is different from that of the previous government. Unlike the administration of former President Roh Moo-hyun, Lee’s administration has continued to reiterate that the future of inter-Korean relations depends on progress with the North Korean nuclear issue.

The new South Korean government seems to have held on to the belief that, no matter how tense the situation, North Korea would eventually agree to participate in further talks. This belief has some merit, and the South Korean government has always said that the North’s economy could worsen due to a surge in energy and food prices, so has agreed to provide humanitarian aid in the form of food.. China, which will soon host the Summer Olympics, will concentrate on the stabilization of the Korean Peninsula. The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush, which is in the last stage of its tenure, is likely to maintain its stance on resolving the nuclear issue through dialogue. Officials in Seoul think that, during a recent round of bilateral talks in Geneva, Washington actually gave Pyongyang all the cards it had. Moreover, if North Korea continues to disable its nuclear facilities, the nation will be given an additional 700,000 tons of heavy fuel oil and it is too late to reverse the disablement process.

It is in this context that the South expects there to be a turning point. The South expects that the North may provide a full declaration of its nuclear programs in May, after a U.S.-South Korea summit to be held in April, in which case the concerned countries would be able to resume the stalled six-party talks.

The statement issued prior to the March 28 missile launch seemed to intended as a warning to the international community, not to aggravate the situation, and there are a couple of opinions to support this.

Within the government, some think that the North’s actions are aimed at “enhancing their power of negotiation,” and maintain that South Korea should wait longer, instead of “being now glad, now sad.”

However, an expert who spoke on condition of anonymity was somewhat more pessimistic. He said, “It is difficult for the North to easily decide or change its direction in terms of declaring its nuclear programs. The situation is not so good that we can think optimistically about the matter.” He added that the problem is that “President Lee’s administration hasn’t shown the will to engage in the process.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]