Geumgang incident complicates Lee’s N. Korea policy

Posted on : 2008-07-14 13:41 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Lee faces tough decisions about political situation in Northeast Asia and North Korean nuclear issue
 Gangwon Province
Gangwon Province

President Lee Myung-bak’s North Korea policies are once again being put to the test with the July 11 shooting of a South Korean tourist at Mount Geumgang.

The president’s speech to the National Assembly at its opening last week was reflective of the conundrum the government has found itself in as a result of a confluence of recent events that now represent a choice for the Lee administration in how he will deal with the political situation in Northeast Asia and the North Korean nuclear issue.

In the speech, Lee suggested that inter-Korean dialogue get a fresh start and proposed discussing implementation of the June 15 and October 4 joint declarations with North Korea. It was the first time Lee referred to the two declarations since he took office.

Inter-Korean dialogue has come to a halt in the months since Lee took office, but the North’s nuclear declaration and the explosion of a cooling tower at the North’s Yongbyon nuclear plant has brought about rapid progress in ties between the North and the United States.

But President Lee’s suggestion to resume inter-Korean dialogue, and his mention of the June 15 and October 4 joint declarations, seems to indicate that he does not want to be left alone in Northeast Asia. At the same time, the June 11 accident has tested his willingness to resolve the deadlock between South and North Korea. Lee’s dilemma is which tactic to choose.

However, the shooting accident has tested Lee’s willingness to resolve the deadlock between South and North Korea. It is even possible that President Lee’s government may once again adopt hard-line policies toward the North due to the shooting, something that Lee’s conservative supporters have demanded since the shooting took place.

But hard-line policies like this will make it difficult for the South to participate in international efforts to bring reconciliation to the Korean Peninsula through the six-party talks. Some say that the government should retract its proposal on the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue; however, doing that could raise questions about the government’s reliability. The South seems to be running out of cards to play.

The government has temporarily suspended tours to Mount Geumgang, but it will be difficult for it to put a complete hold on tours to the city of Gaeseong (Kaesong), the site of an inter-Korean industrial complex, because it is a private cooperative project. Moreover, the United States would not be expected to agree to such a move because of the risk that it could heighten tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

A key Blue House official said on July 13 that Seoul’s proposal to resume inter-Korean talks still stands. President Lee’s proposal for inter-Korean dialogue is one thing and the shooting another, the official said, reflecting the Blue House’s concerns about what it will do.

The Lee administration, whose approval ratings are already low, could see its authority weakened further if it does not take steps to resolve the issue. In particular, if it loses its conservative base, the administration’s approval ratings will drop so low that it will not be able to recover.

The president urged the Sorth Korean government to clarify the truth about the accident during a meeting of related ministers on July 12 and the Blue House had a strong response to a statement issued by the North on the same day. In its statement, North Korea asked that South Korea take responsibility for the incident and urged the South to take steps to prevent similar accidents in the future.

In this context, a high-ranking Blue House official remarked on July 13 that “the South has reacted strongly but has not actually taken any action on the matter, considering the possibility of dialogue with the North. The important thing is that basic policies regarding peace on the Korean Peninsula be maintained along with the inter-Korean dialogue.”

Kim Yeon-cheol, the director of the Hankyoreh Peace Institute, said, “It will be difficult for the government to make a choice between two policies, one related to the international situation and the other to the domestic situation.” He went on to say, “The South probably can’t adopt a hard-line stance on the North. However, the government should have the ability to manage the gap between the international and domestic situation.”

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